Happy Pi day ;)
Well obviously the threat of war trumps positive market data, especially when the war might be between the US and Russia…
Yep it looks like the Crimean thing is coming to a head and the pseudo saber rattling is making markets unhappy. The Dow had one of its worst days of the year losing over 230 points. We were the lucky beneficiaries of that thanks to the stock lever. “Flight to quality” (when stocks are tanking traders often “park” their money in safe havens like bonds) trading resulted in a pretty good day for rates. Economic data out of China helped give the markets concern in spite of a spat of positive economic data on the home front.
Today’s PPI (Producer Price Index) data shows friendlier inflation numbers than the Import/Export price data yesterday. The only other data for the day is Consumer Sentiment due at 9:55a but we do have Stanley Fischer, nominee for vice chair of the Fed, speaking as well.
But it looks like the markets will have all eyes on the Crimean situation until the vote there on Sunday and the aftereffects of that vote will surely be seen in Monday’s open. As long as we aren’t lobbing nukes to each other that is...
I wonder what effect that would have on the markets?
This kind of uncertainty is good for rates, as we’ve already seen, but can be extremely short lived once the threats are resolved. Preopen is pointing down more for stocks- The Dow is looking to open under 16k- with rates continuing to benefit. I say this is a good day to ride the market down but plan to lock by end of day given no additional direction. With rates in the low to mid 4’s for most programs and the threat of losing ground Monday morning if things settle down, today should present a good opportunity.
Have a great weekend everyone!
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