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Mortgage Rate Update 6-17-14: Trends & Projections

By Jason E. Gordon

Mortgage and Lending with CMG Mortgage, San Diego, CA NMLS 259027

June 17, 2014 04:18 AM

Pricing has opened 0.125 - 0.250 WORSE to the points/credits associated with each interest rate option.

This daily mortgage interest rate report is designed to provide Borrowers & Real Estate Profesionals with factual data regarding where rates are at any given time and what trends are propelling current mortgage pricing on any given day. Feel free to browse the library and research historical rate updates dating back over 2 years at www.JasonGordon.info whenever desired. To make things easier, I have also posted a quick report on How To Read The Charts Below.

Also, make sure to learn THE TOP 10 THINGS TO KNOW ABOUT MORTGAGE RATES (to help understand the relationship between rates & fees/credits) along with THE TRUTH BEHIND MORTGAGE QUOTES (to better understand the relationship between up-front closing costs and mortgage interest rates so you don't get duped by clever advertising campaigns). Remember, we all make better decisions in life when we have the actual facts to analyze...share this report with those whom you care about!

San Diego Mortgage Rates - Jason Gordon - www.JasonGordonMortgage.com

The Mortgage Street Smarts of where mortgage interest rates are going (and why):

The following information is current as of Tuesday 6-17-2014 and will help you understand today's best mortgage rates. If you are a Buyer/Borrower who is still on the fence (or if you are a Real Estate Agent attempting to educate your "on the fence" Buyer), please review these trends and secure an historically low interest rate before it is too late.

The market closed Monday with an IMPROVEMENT to pricing. Thursday's IMPROVEMENT netted a change of 6 basis points (bps).

(Note: Upward activity on these charts is GOOD, downward activity is BAD)

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The following chart summarizes todays market activity:

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The following chart shows market activity over the past 10 days (hint: green is good, red is bad):

The following chart shows market activity over the past 1 month:

Daily Interest Rate Snapshot (sample of rates from one of the country's largest Lenders...individual pricing will vary based on specific Borrower qualifications): NOTE: This Lender has quoted a 1.00% Origination Fee (1 Point) to accompany this pricing. It bears noting that this chart does not necessarily represent todays best mortgage rates.

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Market Commentary (Neil Trenerry)

FNMA - Month Jul

Cpn 3.0 Chg -0.2344 Bid 97.76563

Cpn 3.5 Chg -0.1875 Bid 101.92188

Cpn 4.0 Chg -0.1406 Bid 105.21875

Treasury

UST 5 YR Chg -0.1719 Bid 98.90625 Yield 1.7310

UST 10 YR Chg -0.2656 Bid 98.89063 Yield 2.6260

UST 30 YR Chg -0.4375 Bid 99.20313 Yield 3.4180

Currency

Euro Bid 1.3543 Chg -0.0030

Pound Bid 1.6954 Chg -0.0028

Yen Bid 102.090 Chg 0.290

Light Crude

Last 106.65

Key Economic Data:

ICSC Chain Stories

WW: Actual 0.4%, last -2.8%.

YY: Actual 3.1%, Last 3.0%.

CPI for May

MM, SA: Actual 0.4%, Consensus 0.2%, last 0.3%.

YY, NSA: Actual 2.1%, Consensus 2.0%, Last 2.0%.

Core MM, SA: Actual 0.3%, Consensus 0.2%, Last 0.2%.

Core YY, NSA: 2.0%, Consensus 1.9%, Last 1.8%.

Index, NSA: Actual 237.90, Consensus 237.55, Last 237.07.

Core Index, SA: Actual 237.78, Lst 237.16.

Real Weekly Earnings MM: Actual -0.1%, Last -0.3%.

Housing Starts for May: Actual 1.001m, Consensus 1.034m, Last 1.072m.

Building Permits for May: Actual 0.991m, Consensus 1.050m, Last 1.059m.

Redbook\MM: Actual -1.6%, Last -1.8%.

MM: Actual 3.5%, Last 3.3%.

8:30: Cleveland Fed CPI for May: Last 0.3%.

Advice:

Treasury two-year note yields reached the highest level since September as Federal Reserve officials begin a two-day policy meeting. Benchmark 10-year notes erased a gain after the cost of living in the U.S. rose more than forecast in May, reflecting broad-based gains that signal inflation will move closer to the Federal Reserves goal. Eurodollar futures, the worlds most actively traded short-term interest-rate contract, are underestimating the pace of tightening over the next two years, according to 55 percent of 56 economists in the June 12-16 survey by Bloomberg News. Investors are wary ahead of tomorrows rate announcement, said Nick Stamenkovic, a fixed-income strategist at broker RIA Capital Markets Ltd. in Edinburgh. The risk is that rate projections tomorrow are more hawkish than in March. The 10-year note yield rose two basis points, or 0.02 percentage point, to 2.62 percent at 8:34 a.m. in New York, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader data. The two-year yield rose one basis point to 0.48 percent, the highest since Sept. 6. The yield difference between two- and 10-year Treasury notes was at 213 basis points, after falling to 207 on May 28, the least since June 19, based on closing prices. A flatter yield curve suggests investors scaled back on growth expectations.

The consumer price index increased 0.4 percent, the biggest advance since February 2013, after climbing 0.3 percent the prior month, a Labor Department report showed today in Washington. The median forecast of 81 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a 0.2 percent increase. Excluding volatile food and energy prices, the gain was the largest in almost three years.

My position on MBS:

Short term stays Neutral.

Long term stays Neutral.

Long = I anticipate pricing to improve which leads to lower Rates.

Neutral = Market should stay close to open plus or minimums 25bps.

Short = I anticipate pricing to weaken which leads to higher Rates.

Short term = 1 - 2 days out

Long term = 30+ days out

Market Commentary (Dan Rawitch)

CPI was not pretty and is putting pressure on bonds. Inflation is the number one enemy of bonds. Housing starts were a bit weaker than expected, but not weak enough to overcome the high CPI number. Again, we are trading below the support level and again we risk running down to the bottom of our channel. If we can manage to close above 102 once again, it will be bullish for bonds. I will be surprised if we can muster up enough buying today, to make that happen, given CPI.

Floating is more risky than normal in my opinion.

http://www.ratewatch.com/ratewatchnow.html

Trusted Industry Advisor

San Diego Mortgage Rates - Jason Gordon - www.JasonGordonMortgage.com

The above information was compiled and distributed by San Diego Residential Mortgage Specialist, Jason E Gordon in an effort to provide transparency regarding true mortgage rate activity and market guidance to consumers and professionals interested in this activity. All Market Commentary is provided via The Mortgage Coach and/or their RateWatch technology software.

As a Certified Mortgage Planning Specialist (CMPS) Certified Distressed Property Expert (CDPE) and Certified Mortgage Coach (CMC), Jason E Gordon utilizes his advanced training to examine a prospective Client's complete financial picture, while carefully listening to their overall goals. If it is mutually agreed that a new loan makes sense to pursue, Jason strives to make the entire loan process as seamless as possible. He truly believes that providing open communication and patient educational guidance to his Clients and Business Alliances has been a pivotal component to building his business, while enhancing his reputation in the Mortgage Industry as a Trusted Advisor. Visit www.GordonMortgage.com or www.ApprovingSD.com or more information.

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