Market update at glance June 2014

Market update at glance

June 30th 2014

“Questions to ponder about the market”

The first half of 2014 is past, now is the time to ask questions about the direction of the market and comparisons to gain and illuminate knowledge that might be found.

So instead of my usually format, questions will be both the information and thoughts of where the market might be. All the question comparisons are from January 1^st to June 30^th, 2014 to 2013 - 2013 to 2012.

#1 Why are closed sales down year over year in 2014 by -6%, when they were up +9% year over year in 2013?

#2 Why are pending sales down year over year in 2014 by -12%, when they were up +24% year over year in 2013?

#3 Why are active listings up year over year in 2014 by +20%, when they were down -7% year over year in 2013?

#4 Why are total single family permits issued by the city of Billings down year over year in 2014 by         -31%, when they were up +55% year over year in 2013?

#5 Why are total rentals advertised up year over year in 2014 by +34%, when they were up +18% year over year in 2013?

#6 Why would the above occur when interest rates up year over year in 2014 by a mere +2%. when they were up +9.5% year over year in 2013?

#7 Why would the above occur when employment is up year over year in 2014 by +.6%, when employment was up +1.4% year over year in 2013?

#8 Why would the above occur when the number of unemployed  is down year over year in 2014 by      -22.2%, when the number unemployed  was up +5.9% year over year in 2013?

#9 Why would the above occur when the PITI payment for the average sales price is up year over year in 2014 by +4.58% (or $65 higher per month  in 2014 than 2013), when PITI payment was up +9.67 % year over year in 2013 ( or $125 higher per month in 2013 than 2012)?

#10 Why would the above occur when  the total income in Yellowstone county (estimated) is up year over year in 2014 by +4.9% (ten year average  in 2014 than 2013), when total income in Yellowstone county was up +2.48 % year over year in 2013  compared 2012?

When thinking about the real estate market and home sales, sometimes stopping and asking yourself questions may illuminate more, than reading the popular press, where information put forward may have an agenda rather than the purpose to inform with good information, so good decisions can be made with good information. My belief is that numbers are neither good nor bad they just are, and the more accurate the representations of the market place the better the decisions that can be made.

Thoughts to ponder as we enter the second half of 2014

              All the trends require watching when thinking about the health of the market overall. I hope you find the information both useful and enlightening, if you have any questions about either buying, selling or the market in general do not hesitate to call or email

Charts comparing Yellowstone county home sales 2014 to 2013

Monthly closed sales June was a good month first time in 2014 we exceed closed sales in 2013 for the month

Ratio of pending sales to active listings for sale, showing normal peak time in June (lower than 2013), yet faster deceleration in new pending  sales and faster increase inventory than in 2013

Year to date comparison of closed sales thought June of each year

New single family permits issued by the City of Billings Monthly, we are now eleven months in a row of fewer permits issued in the current year (2014) and month as compared to the year and month in the previous year (2013).

Year to date total single family permits issued and single family permits issued for the of June

Median sales price by area of town comparing  end of the year 2013 to year to date 2014.