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Mortgage Rate Update 8-4-14: Trends & Projections

By Jason E. Gordon

Mortgage and Lending with CMG Mortgage, San Diego, CA NMLS 259027

August 04, 2014 03:11 AM

Following an extremely volatile week, it has been a quiet morning. The Dow is down 40 points. No economic data will be released today. Investors will be mostly watching events outside the US this week, including conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, banking troubles in Portugal, and a debt default in Argentina.

Compared to Friday's closing, the market has opened roughly identical for the Points/Credits associated with any given interest rate option.

This daily mortgage interest rate report is designed to provide Borrowers & Real Estate Profesionals with factual data regarding where rates are at any given time and what trends are propelling current mortgage pricing on any given day. Feel free to browse the library and research historical rate updates dating back over 2 years at www.JasonGordon.info whenever desired. To make things easier, I have also posted a quick report on How To Read The Charts Below.

Also, make sure to learn THE TOP 10 THINGS TO KNOW ABOUT MORTGAGE RATES (to help understand the relationship between rates & fees/credits) along with THE TRUTH BEHIND MORTGAGE QUOTES (to better understand the relationship between up-front closing costs and mortgage interest rates so you don't get duped by clever advertising campaigns). Remember, we all make better decisions in life when we have the actual facts to analyze...share this report with those whom you care about!

San Diego Mortgage Rates - Jason Gordon - www.JasonGordonMortgage.com

The Mortgage Street Smarts of where mortgage interest rates are going (and why):

The following information is current as of Monday 8-4-2014 and will help you understand today's best mortgage rates. If you are a Buyer/Borrower who is still on the fence (or if you are a Real Estate Agent attempting to educate your "on the fence" Buyer), please review these trends and secure an historically low interest rate before it is too late.

The market closed Friday with an IMPROVEMENT to pricing. Friday's IMPROVEMENT netted a change of 12 basis points (bps).

(Note: Upward activity on these charts is GOOD, downward activity is BAD)

Lowest Mortgage Rates in San Diego - www.GordonMortgage.com

The following chart summarizes todays market activity:

Lowest Mortgage Rates in San Diego - www.GordonMortgage.com

The following chart shows market activity over the past 10 days (hint: green is good, red is bad):

The following chart shows market activity over the past 1 month:

Daily Interest Rate Snapshot (sample of rates from one of the country's largest Lenders...individual pricing will vary based on specific Borrower qualifications): NOTE: This Lender has quoted a 1.00% Origination Fee (1 Point) to accompany this pricing. It bears noting that this chart does not necessarily represent todays best mortgage rates.

Lowest Mortgage Rates in San Diego - www.GordonMortgage.com

Market Commentary (Neil Trenerry)

FNMA - Month Aug

Cpn 3.0 Chg 0.1094 Bid 98.50000

Cpn 3.5 Chg 0.0938 Bid 102.35938

Cpn 4.0 Chg 0.0625 Bid 105.54688

Treasury

UST 5 YR Chg 0.0625 Bid 99.87500 Yield 1.6510

UST 10 YR Chg 0.1094 Bid 100.15625 Yield 2.4820

UST 30 YR Chg 0.0000 Bid 101.76563 Yield 3.2810

Currency

Euro Bid 1.3423 Chg -0.0006

Pound Bid 1.6841 Chg 0.0018

Yen Bid 102.490 Chg -0.100

Light Crude

Last 97.69

Key Economic Data:

6:45: ISM-New York Index for Jul: Last 635.3.

7:00: Employment Trends for Jul: Last 119.6.

Advice:

The difference between yields on Treasury five-year notes and 30-year bonds reached the widest in two weeks as investors questioned how quickly the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates. The so-called yield curve steepened last week for the first time in a month as U.S. jobs gains fell short of forecasts, pushing shorter-term rates down faster than longer-term yields. A gauge of Treasury market volatility ended the week a four-month high as the U.S. economy grew more than projected and turmoil in Ukraine and the Mideast spurred demand for safety. Technically, the curve had extended too much on the flattening side, said Ian Lyngen, a government-bond strategist at CRT Capital Group LLC in Stamford, Connecticut. The geopolitical issues in Ukraine and the Middle East add another

layer of uncertainty and have kept the market from moving toward sustainably higher yields. The five-year note yield fell one basis point, or 0.01 percentage point, to 1.65 percent at 9:32 a.m. in New York, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader data. The price of the 1.625 percent security due in July 2019 rose 2/32, or 63 cents per $1,000 face amount, to 99 7/8. Thirty-year bond yields were little changed at 3.28 percent. The yield curve reached 164 basis points, the highest since July 18. It flattened significantly this year, reaching 149 basis points, the least since January 2009, on July 30 as Fed discussions of boosting interest rates next year hurt the appeal of shorter-term debt while uneven economic growth supported demand for longer-term securities.

My position on MBS:

Short term stays Long.

Long term stays Short.

Long = I anticipate pricing to improve which leads to lower Rates.

Neutral = Market should stay close to open plus or minimums 25bps.

Short = I anticipate pricing to weaken which leads to higher Rates.

Short term = 1 - 2 days out

Long term = 30+ days out

Market Commentary (Dan Rawitch)

No news today and a fairly light news week. Last week was crazy with all sorts of mixed news and a bond market that got whipsawed. The good news is that we are back firmly in the the trading range and in fact are making a run at testing the top again. Given the light news week, unless something surprising happens, I would expect more of the same, with regard to the trading range we've been in for the last several weekes.

Have a great day!

http://www.ratewatch.com/ratewatchnow.html

Trusted Industry Advisor

San Diego Mortgage Rates - Jason Gordon - www.JasonGordonMortgage.com

The above information was compiled and distributed by San Diego Residential Mortgage Specialist, Jason E Gordon in an effort to provide transparency regarding true mortgage rate activity and market guidance to consumers and professionals interested in this activity. All Market Commentary is provided via The Mortgage Coach and/or their RateWatch technology software.

As a Certified Mortgage Planning Specialist (CMPS) Certified Distressed Property Expert (CDPE) Certified Mortgage Coach (CMC), and Certified Military Housing Specialist (CMHS), Jason E Gordon utilizes his advanced training to examine a prospective Client's complete financial picture, while carefully listening to their overall goals. If it is mutually agreed that a new loan makes sense to pursue, Jason strives to make the entire loan process as seamless as possible. He truly believes that providing open communication and patient educational guidance to his Clients and Business Alliances has been a pivotal component to building his business, while enhancing his reputation in the Mortgage Industry as a Trusted Advisor. Visit www.GordonMortgage.com or www.CrossApproval.com or more information.

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