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OAKLAND: 94621 Stats and Musings or Where is Everybody or Anybody?

By
Real Estate Agent with Alain Pinel REALTORS BRE#00861017

I was doing some research for a client and thought that I would share some of my findings here. I am only looking at a small segment of the market--one zip code in Oakland:  94621--and at two-bedroom, one-bath single-family homes. In all of 2007, 49 2-BR, 1-bath homes sold in this zip code ranging from a low of $180,000 to a high of $485,000 (quite a range).

LIST PRICE:
SOLD PRICE:
DOM:
HIGHLOWAVERAGEMEDIANTOTAL PRICELISTING COUNT
$484,950$188,000$335,840$329,000$16,456,18849
$485,000$180,000$322,867$320,000$15,820,525
13204432

What is happening today? So far only five homes have sold but 113 are on the market.

LIST PRICE:
SOLD PRICE:
DOM:
HIGHLOWAVERAGEMEDIANTOTAL PRICELISTING COUNT
$324,900$177,000$236,140$229,000$1,180,7005
$295,000$157,000$216,400$195,000$1,082,000
98174539

The median price is barely 61% of what it was last year. Why so dramatic a change in a short amount of time?

If 5 houses sold (closed) the first quarter of 2008 and that rate continues, we could anticipate 20 sales this year or 41% of the number of sales last year. And even if NO MORE HOMES hit the market, there is a 5 1/2 year supply of inventory!

Some of the drops in price--from prior sales--are even more amazing.

What I am wondering is what has happened to all of these former homeowners? 38 of these are short sales and 8 are REOs (foreclosures). So over 40% of the current listings indicate that someone has lost or will be losing their home. Where are these people going to? And where are the new first-time buyers for whom these houses would be extremely affordable?

If despite interest rates and prices being LOW, people are unable to buy homes, then maybe we need to look at what it takes to qualify to buy a home. Some lenders are now requiring 700 FICOs. Is someone with a 620 FICO a bad person or a poor risk? Didn't used to be, but sure seems that way now.

Or maybe we need to look at more creative financing. Perhaps getting the seller involved in a seller carry-back? Or other incentives like paying the property taxes for a year?

I don't have all the answers. I am curious as to what others think. I think that it is sad that people are losing their homes and that many people who would really like to buy a home are unable to do so. Maybe when Hillary and/or Barack get to the White House, things will change. The idiot there now sure isn't helping matters despite his petty posturing and pablum.

(Listing and sales information taken from East Bay Regional Data, Inc.)

Comments (2)

Mike Jones
SUNSTREET MORTGAGE, LLC (BK-0907366, NMLS 145171) - Tucson, AZ
Mike Jones NMLS 223495

Rebecca,

WELCOME to Active Rain.  You have the blog thing down.  Now it's time to learn to upload a few images; it's real easy, and will make your posts more visually appealing.  You're doing great.  Keep on blogging, and Google will find you.  Search "for newbies only" and you'll find some great "how to" posts.

Much Success!
Mike in Tucson

Mar 30, 2008 05:43 PM
Rebecca White
Alain Pinel REALTORS - San Francisco, CA
Real Estate Agent - San Francisco

Thanks, Mike, I appreciate the advice and encouragement. One of my colleagues has tons of pictures on his blog and I was wondering about that.

 There is so much to figure out about this. I thought that I would just "jump in" and learn as I went along. Pictures will be my next lesson!

Are you with KW per chance? Many of the Mega Agents who spoke at our recent convention ALL advised us to blog. So, here I am!!!

Mar 31, 2008 06:11 PM