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Did terrorism and 9/11 cause the housing market mess?

By
Real Estate Broker/Owner with The Broker Ben Group at Realty Idaho

A few weeks ago I ran across a story with this title on MSN.com.  My first reaction was that a statement like that was ludicrous.  So I opened the story and skeptically began reading.  Now, I don't know if the writer convinced me totally, but he definitely made me see things from another angle.

The writer started off by bringing up some facts.  After 9/11 people were justifiably concerned about, among other things, their investments, and the stability of the markets.  This caused a massive plunge in the stock market, and the housing market to slow considerably.  The Fed jumped in and over the course of a number of months, lowered the interest rates to stave off recession, and to spark consumer confidence.  (Sound familiar?)  Rates dropped to historical lows, which caused many people, especially investors, and speculators to move their investments from the stock market to the housing market.  What followed was an incredible time in the real estate industry.  Loans were easy to get, and home prices were appreciating at remarkable rates.  And everyone got caught up in it.  REALTORS (R), Lenders, Builders, etc., and before anyone could stop and take a breath, the unsustainable growth has crippled many markets, and the infamous "housing bubble" had burst. 

This writer made the connection that if it wasn't for the terrorist attacks on 9/11, the Fed would not have needed to drop interest rates so low, the housing market would have continued to increase at mediocre levels, and the housing bubble, and the credit crunch would not have happened.

Like I said, I think it is a little bit of a stretch, and there were definitely MANY other factors that contributed to the housing correction, and the credit crunch. But this story, as far fetched as it sounded when I read the initial title, had me walking away scratching my head and thinking "Could terrorism and 9/11 have contributed to the housing market problems?"

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Eric Kodner
Wayzata Lakes Realty: Eric Kodner Sells Twin Cities Homes - Minnetonka, MN
Wayzata Lakes Realty: Twin Cities, Madeline Island

People tend to like simple solutions and simple answers.  I'm not convinced that 9/11 caused the housing market meltdown, but it may have contributed to it.  The Fed tends to knee-jerk and over-correct when it perceives a problem.  Maybe that's why the economy appears to swing between extremes depending on Fed policy.

Mar 30, 2008 12:41 PM
Jean Powers
Kane & Associates call 510.908.9002 - Alameda, CA
CRS,e-PRO,HAFA,SFR Broker, Northern California
I don't believe 9/11 was the cause either, the market continued to increase, the reality of lender fraud came into play and that I feel is how it all started.  Everything just contributed to the problem.  
Mar 30, 2008 12:56 PM
Ben Myers
The Broker Ben Group at Realty Idaho - Meridian, ID
CEO/Designated Broker

Eric - I totally agree.  I don't think that it caused the housing issues, but after reading the article, it made me think that it might have been a contributing factor.

Jean - I agree with you on the lender fraud.  I think the dollar signs made a lot of people in our industry forget about there integrity and character a bit.  Hopefully those people are the ones that aren't able to make it through this correcting market.

Mar 31, 2008 04:59 AM