Mortgage Rate Update 9-2-14: Trends & Projections

Mortgage and Lending with AmeriFirst Financial Inc, San Diego, CA NMLS 259027

September 02, 2014 01:35 AM

https://activerain.com/droplet/4wzV

Mortgage Backed Securities are starting off the month on the defensive as the long holiday weekend provided little in the way of geopolitical headlines. The ISM Index & Construction Spending both came in above expectations.

Compared to Friday's closing, the market has opened with a 0.250% WORSENING for the Points/Credits associated with any given interest rate option.

This daily mortgage interest rate report is designed to provide Borrowers & Real Estate Profesionals with factual data regarding where rates are at any given time and what trends are propelling current mortgage pricing on any given day. Feel free to browse the library and research historical rate updates dating back over 2 years at www.JasonGordon.info whenever desired. To make things easier, I have also posted a quick report on How To Read The Charts Below.

Also, make sure to learn THE TOP 10 THINGS TO KNOW ABOUT MORTGAGE RATES (to help understand the relationship between rates & fees/credits) along with THE TRUTH BEHIND MORTGAGE QUOTES (to better understand the relationship between up-front closing costs and mortgage interest rates so you don't get duped by clever advertising campaigns). Remember, we all make better decisions in life when we have the actual facts to analyze...share this report with those whom you care about!

San Diego Mortgage Rates - Jason Gordon - www.JasonGordonMortgage.com

The Mortgage Street Smarts of where mortgage interest rates are going (and why):

The following information is current as of Tuesday 9-2-2014 and will help you understand today's best mortgage rates. If you are a Buyer/Borrower who is still on the fence (or if you are a Real Estate Agent attempting to educate your "on the fence" Buyer), please review these trends and secure an historically low interest rate before it is too late.

The market closed Friday with an IMPROVEMENT to pricing. Friday's IMPROVEMENT netted a change of 6 basis points (bps).

(Note: Upward activity on these charts is GOOD, downward activity is BAD)

Gordon Mortgage Group - San Diego Mortgage Rates - www.GordonMortgage.com

The following chart summarizes todays market activity:

Gordon Mortgage Group - San Diego Mortgage Rates - www.GordonMortgage.com

The following chart shows market activity over the past 10 days (hint: green is good, red is bad):

The following chart shows market activity over the past 1 month:

Daily Interest Rate Snapshot (sample of rates from one of the country's largest Lenders...individual pricing will vary based on specific Borrower qualifications): NOTE: This Lender has quoted a 1.00% Origination Fee (1 Point) to accompany this pricing. It bears noting that this chart does not necessarily represent todays best mortgage rates.

Gordon Mortgage Group - San Diego Mortgage Rates - www.GordonMortgage.com

Market Commentary (Neil Trenerry)

FNMA - Month Aug

Cpn 3.0 Chg -0.2500 Bid 99.23438

Cpn 3.5 Chg -0.1875 Bid 102.73438

Cpn 4.0 Chg -0.1094 Bid 105.81250

Treasury

UST 5 YR Chg -0.1797 Bid 99.81250 Yield 1.6640

UST 10 YR Chg -0.4688 Bid 99.79688 Yield 2.3980

UST 30 YR Chg -1.2500 Bid 99.54688 Yield 3.1480

Currency

Euro Bid 1.3122 Chg -0.0004

Pound Bid 1.6511 Chg -0.0097

Yen Bid 104.930 Chg 0.580

Light Crude

Last 94.72

Key Economic Data:

6:45: Markit Mfg PMI Final for Aug: Last 58.0.

7:00: Construction Spending for Jul: Consensus 1.0%, Last -1.8%.

7:00: IDB Economic Optimism for Sep: Last 44.5.

7:00: ISM Manufacturing for Aug

PMI: Last 56.8, Last 57.1.

Prices Paid: Consensus 58.0, Last 59.5.

Employment Index: Consensus 58.4, Last 58.2.

New Orders: Last 63.4.

Advice:

Treasuries fell, after posting the biggest rally in seven months in August, before reports this week that economists predict will show U.S. manufacturing and employment expanded. South Koreas Government Employees Pension Service and Samsung Asset Management Co. both said theyre focusing their U.S. investing outside the Treasury market following a tumble in government yields. U.S. rates have fallen this year amid geopolitical tensions from Ukraine to the Middle East and speculation that the European Central Bank will expand monetary stimulus to revive inflation. We had a severe winter but after that the data has bounced back, said Philip Marey, a senior market economist at Rabobank Groep in Utrecht, the Netherlands. Based on that, we

might see higher Treasury yields. What has been happening outside the U.S. has been keeping yields at lower levels than you would expect after such a strong rebound. The U.S. 10-year yield climbed four basis points, or 0.04 percentage point, to 2.39 percent at 7:42 a.m. in New York, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader data. The 2.375 percent note due August 2024 fell 12/32, or $3.75 per $1,000 face amount, to 99 29/32. The yield tumbled to 2.30 percent on Aug. 15, the lowest since June 2013.

Treasuries resumed trading today after being closed worldwide yesterday in observance of the U.S. Labor Day holiday. The government securities returned 1.3 percent in August, the best performance since January, based on the Bloomberg World

Bond Indexes.

My position on MBS:

Short term changes to Short

Long term stays Short.

Long = I anticipate pricing to improve which leads to lower Rates.

Neutral = Market should stay close to open plus or minimums 25bps.

Short = I anticipate pricing to weaken which leads to higher Rates.

Short term = 1 - 2 days out

Long term = 30+ days out

Market Commentary (Dan Rawitch)

Today both the ISM index and the contruction spending numbers came in better than expected. That did not cause our Gap down opening. The big drop in price appears to be profit taking, and I am not surprised by the move. We've been expecting a drop to go down and test the bottom of the channel. It should hold somewhere close to 102.55-102.65 as a support level. I'd like to see the market establish a trading range between 102.60 and 103.00 for the next several trading sessions. This would build a foundation for the next big run up.

We should be mindful of all the good economic news that is coming our way and watch the Payroll numbers that will be released at the end of the week.

http://www.ratewatch.com/ratewatchnow.html

Trusted Industry Advisor

San Diego Mortgage Rates - Jason Gordon - www.JasonGordonMortgage.com

The above information was compiled and distributed by San Diego Residential Mortgage Specialist, Jason E Gordon in an effort to provide transparency regarding true mortgage rate activity and market guidance to consumers and professionals interested in this activity. All Market Commentary is provided via The Mortgage Coach and/or their RateWatch technology software.

As a Certified Mortgage Planning Specialist (CMPS) Certified Distressed Property Expert (CDPE) Certified Mortgage Coach (CMC), and Certified Military Housing Specialist (CMHS), Jason E Gordon utilizes his advanced training to examine a prospective Client's complete financial picture, while carefully listening to their overall goals. If it is mutually agreed that a new loan makes sense to pursue, Jason strives to make the entire loan process as seamless as possible. He truly believes that providing open communication and patient educational guidance to his Clients and Business Alliances has been a pivotal component to building his business, while enhancing his reputation in the Mortgage Industry as a Trusted Advisor. Visit www.GordonMortgage.com or www.CrossApproval.com or more information.

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