Mortgage Rate Update 9-12-14: Trends & Projections

Mortgage and Lending with AmeriFirst Financial Inc, San Diego, CA NMLS 259027

The bad run on rates continues...!

Compared to Thursday's closing, the market has opened with a 0.250% WORSENING for the Points/Credits associated with any given interest rate option.

This daily mortgage interest rate report is designed to provide Borrowers & Real Estate Profesionals with factual data regarding where rates are at any given time and what trends are propelling current mortgage pricing on any given day. Feel free to browse the library and research historical rate updates dating back over 2 years at whenever desired.  To make things easier, I have also posted a quick report on How To Read The Charts Below.

Also, make sure to learn THE TOP 10 THINGS TO KNOW ABOUT MORTGAGE RATES (to help understand the relationship between rates & fees/credits) along with THE TRUTH BEHIND MORTGAGE QUOTES (to better understand the relationship between up-front closing costs and mortgage interest rates so you don't get duped by clever advertising campaigns). Remember, we all make better decisions in life when we have the actual facts to analyze...share this report with those whom you care about!

San Diego Mortgage Rates - Jason Gordon -

The Mortgage Street Smarts of where mortgage interest rates are going (and why):

The following information is current as of Friday 9-12-2014 and will help you understand today's best mortgage rates. If you are a Buyer/Borrower who is still on the fence (or if you are a Real Estate Agent attempting to educate your "on the fence" Buyer), please review these trends and secure an historically low interest rate before it is too late.

The market closed Thursday with a SIGNIFICANT WORSENING to pricing. Thursday's SIGNIFICANT WORSENING netted a change of 25 basis points (bps).

(Note: Upward activity on these charts is GOOD, downward activity is BAD)

San Diego Mortgage Rates -

The following chart summarizes todays market activity:

San Diego Mortgage Rates -

The following chart shows market activity over the past 10 days (hint: green is good, red is bad):

 San Diego Mortgage Rates -

The following chart shows market activity over the past 1 month:

San Diego Mortgage Rates -

Daily Interest Rate Snapshot (sample of rates from one of the country's largest Lenders...individual pricing will vary based on specific Borrower qualifications): NOTE: This Lender has quoted a 1.00% Origination Fee (1 Point) to accompany this pricing. It bears noting that this chart does not necessarily represent todays best mortgage rates.

San Diego Mortgage Rates -

Market Commentary (Neil Trenerry)

FNMA - Month Aug
Cpn 3.0 Chg -0.3125 Bid 97.68750
Cpn 3.5 Chg -0.2500 Bid 101.51563
Cpn 4.0 Chg -0.2031 Bid 104.85938

UST 5 YR Chg -0.1563 Bid 99.06250 Yield 1.8240
UST 10 YR Chg -0.4688 Bid 97.98438 Yield 2.6050
UST 30 YR Chg -1.0781 Bid 96.07813 Yield 3.3320

Euro Bid 1.2917 Chg -0.0007
Pound Bid 1.6225 Chg -0.0029
Yen Bid 107.340 Chg 0.240
Light Crude
Last 92.75

Key Economic Data:
Import Prices for Aug: Actual -0.9%, Consensus -0.9%, Last -0.2%.
Export Prices for Aug: Actual -0.5%, Consensus -0.2%, Last 0.0%.
Retail Sales for Aug
Index: Actual 0.6%, Consensus 0.6%, Last 0.0%.
Ex-Autos: Actual 0.3%, Consensus 0.3%, Last 0.1%.
Ex Gas/Autos: Actual 0.5%, Last 0.1%.
Control: Actual 0.4%, Consensus 0.5%, Last 0.1%.
6:55: Univ of Michigan Prelim for Sep
Sentiment: Consensus 83.3, Last 82.5.
Conditions: Consensus 100.0, Last 99.8.
Expectations: Consensus 73.0, Last 71.3.
1 Yr Inflation: Last 3.2%.
5-Yr Inflation: Last 2.9%.
7:00: Business Inventories for Jul: Consensus 0.4%, last 0.4%.
7:30: ECRI Weekly Index: Last 134.9.

Government bonds worldwide headed for their biggest two-week loss in 14 months on speculation the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates next year. Treasuries declined today, pushing 10-year yields to the highest level since July, as a report showed U.S. retail sales climbed in August at the fastest pace in four months and prior readings were revised up. The Bloomberg Global Developed Sovereign Bond Index fell 2.2 percent in the past two weeks through yesterday, set for the worst performance since June 2013. Theres a 62 percent chance the central bank will increase its benchmark rate by July 2015, federal fund futures show. The Fed meets Sept. 16-17. This month we could have some potentially significant changes to the language used in the statement, perhaps dropping the considerable period phrase and acknowledging that while slack remains, it has been reduced at a faster than expected pace, said John Stopford, head of fixed income at Investec Investment Management Ltd. in London. We still see room for Treasuries to reprice higher in yields, particularly in the five-year area. Treasury 10-year yields rose three basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, to 2.58 percent at 8:58 a.m. New York time, and touched 2.59 percent, the highest level since July 31, according to Bloomberg Bond Trader data. German 10-year bund yields increased four basis points to 1.08 percent, pushing yields up 14 basis points since Sept. 5. Japans 10-year yield added one basis point today to 0.57 percent, up four basis points this week. The equivalent Australian yield was little changed at 3.61 percent today, still 14 basis points higher this week.

My position on MBS:

Short term changes to Short.
Long term stays Short.

Long = I anticipate pricing to improve which leads to lower Rates.
Neutral = Market should stay close to open plus or minimums 25bps.
Short = I anticipate pricing to weaken which leads to higher Rates.

Short term = 1 - 2 days out
Long term = 30+ days out

Market Commentary (Dan Rawitch)

We had some decent economic news today. Nothing that would justify the selling we are seeing in bonds. As i've always said, when a market goes bearish, even good news can be looked at as bad news and bad news can look like HORRIBLE news. This is the case over the last couple of days. This is a sell off and a correction and in my opinion is in no way part of a longer term move to higher rates. In fact, I believe the oposite. We may have a bit more pain to endure, as I think the 10 year is going to need to test the 2.60-2.65% yield. Keep in mind as the Fed backs out and we move toward a normal market, things will get uncomfortable and volitile. I look at this like breaking a fevor after someone has been very sick. Its not pretty, its sweaty and scary and then the patient wakes up all better. I think we are going to begin breaking the fevor.

Today's video is very long, I spent extra time because I know many of you are uncertain and nervous.

Hang in there!


Trusted Industry Advisor

San Diego Mortgage Rates - Jason Gordon -

The above information was compiled and distributed by San Diego Residential Mortgage Specialist, Jason E Gordon in an effort to provide transparency regarding true mortgage rate activity and market guidance to consumers and professionals interested in this activity. All Market Commentary is provided via The Mortgage Coach and/or their RateWatch technology software.

As a Certified Mortgage Planning Specialist (CMPS) Certified Distressed Property Expert (CDPE) Certified Mortgage Coach (CMC), and Certified Military Housing Specialist (CMHS), Jason E Gordon utilizes his advanced training to examine a prospective Client's complete financial picture, while carefully listening to their overall goals. If it is mutually agreed that a new loan makes sense to pursue, Jason strives to make the entire loan process as seamless as possible. He truly believes that providing open communication and patient educational guidance to his Clients and Business Alliances has been a pivotal component to building his business, while enhancing his reputation in the Mortgage Industry as a Trusted Advisor. Visit or or more information.

Click here for daily mortgage interest rate updates and projections for San Diego's best mortgage interest rates

Comments (2)

Richard Weeks
Dallas, TX
REALTOR®, Broker

Great information, thanks for sharing.  I will pass this on to others in our office.

Sep 12, 2014 03:11 AM
Jason E. Gordon
AmeriFirst Financial Inc, San Diego, CA - San Diego, CA

My pleasure Richard. These volatile rates are not for the weak at heart!

Sep 12, 2014 03:26 AM