Monday Market Forecast - Sept. 29 - Oct. 3, 2014

Mortgage and Lending with Mason-McDuffie Mortgage, Conventional Loans, Jumbo Loans, FHA, 203(k), USDA, VA, NMLS #138061 MMCD #1141

Monday Market Forecast - September 29 - October 3, 2014



     I'm back in action after a week of not wanting to write about the market. Mortgage market Seriously.  It's exhausting.  Thankfully due to business, I didn't get to write in the rain as much as I'd like, and my weekly market reports were victims.  Thankfully, the market cooperated and did the same thing it's been doing for the past few months - a whole lot of volatility without a whole lot of movement in the end.



     This week, we've got plenty of economic events that will likely shift markets up, then down, and then leave them settling somewhere around where they have been for the past few months. 



     Today's market opened strong, got stronger, then lost gains - it was a day of stock market VS bond market, as the stock market moved almost identically in the opposite directions.  The DOW is still struggling to stay ahead of the 17,000 mark, and it hasn't been easy thus far.  Poor economic indicators tomorrow could bring it back below the mark.



     Tuesday will bring about the Chicago PMI and Consumer Confidence reports, both of which could cause some fluctuations in the market.  Consumer confidence has seen some strong readings recently and the PMI reports have been all over the charts, so the results of tomorrow look like a big question mark at the moment.



     Wednesday shows us the ADP Employment report & the national ISM index, along with a report on construction spending.  It's always interesting to follow the construction spending report as that is a glimpse into the real estate market on a macro level, but all of these reports could have moderate impact on the markets.



     Thursday and Friday bring in 2 employment reports and business reports.   There could be market movers, especially from the employment news, but recently these factors have been all over the board, so it's impossible to say confidently whether there will be great, little, or no reaction.



     My advice to anyone looking into getting a mortgage is to LOCK in a rate.  Over the past few months, aside from a few good days and a few bad days, rates have been nothing but steady.  30 year fixed rates have remained in the low 4% range (dipping very briefly into the high 3's) for conforming loans, and if you can get a mortgage rate under 5%, you really should consider yourself lucky (on a historical scale and compared to a normal market's rate).  Gambling is just not worth it right now unless you're looking at a very large loan amount - otherwise, that .125 you might gain (or lose) isn't worth the sleep that you'll be 100% guaranteed to lose worrying about it.

If you have any questions about rates, mortgage programs, or the direction of the market, ask an expert!  Or you can call me at 484.680.4852.

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Hannah Williams
Re/Max Eastern inc. - Philadelphia, PA
Expertise NE Philadelphia & Bucks 215-953-8818

John Meussner  I agree with you it is better to be safe then sorry

Sep 29, 2014 07:51 AM #1
Michael Jacobs
Pasadena, CA
Los Angeles Pasadena 818.516.4393

Hi John -- straight forward information delivered in a clear, concise manner.  No BS is a good thing in my mind.

Sep 29, 2014 11:05 AM #2
Grant Schneider
Performance Development Strategies - Armonk, NY
Your Coach Helping You Create Successful Outcomes

John - that is a thoughtful analysis of the market.  I think you are right.

Sep 29, 2014 11:06 AM #3
Evelyn Johnston
Friends & Neighbors Real Estate - Elkhart, IN
The People You Know, Like and Trust!

Okay, I know what PMI is but what is ADP and ISM?

Sep 29, 2014 12:46 PM #4
Bob Ratliff
Robert Ratliff Realty - San Antonio, TX
"Sold with Bob"

John, glad to see you back in full motion with your market update, and good to hear the rates are staying in the low 4%. Hope your having a terrific Tuesday 

Sep 30, 2014 02:37 AM #5
Wayne and Jean Marie Zuhl
Samsel & Associates - Clark, NJ
The Last Names You'll Ever Need in Real Estate

Hi John,

Thank you for posting this.  I really enjoy your market updates and your insight into the field.

Oct 02, 2014 04:58 AM #6
John Meussner
Mason-McDuffie Mortgage, Conventional Loans, Jumbo Loans, FHA, 203(k), USDA, VA, - Walnut Creek, CA
#MortgageMadeEasy Walnut Creek, CA 484-680-4852

Thanks all, appreciate the comments and I'll be sure to keep the market updates coming.


Evelyn Johnston for the benefit of everyone else I'll include PMI : )


Chicago PMI - A Survey of Chicago area business conditions for both manufacturing & non-manufacturing sectors.  The Chicago market is usually pretty close in resemblance to national conditions, so investors watch the Chicago PMI to get an idea of how the business sector is doing.


ISM is a national report based on a survey of purchasing managers in the manufacturing sector nationwide - it's a good indicator on how manufacturing production is going.


The ADP employment report is a good precursor (usually) to the monthly employment report.  It shows the direction of private, non-government and non-farm payrolls and is a glimpse into the health of the labor market.


Oct 02, 2014 06:31 AM #7
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John Meussner

#MortgageMadeEasy Walnut Creek, CA 484-680-4852
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