Monday Market Forecast - September 29 - October 3, 2014
I'm back in action after a week of not wanting to write about the market. Seriously. It's exhausting. Thankfully due to business, I didn't get to write in the rain as much as I'd like, and my weekly market reports were victims. Thankfully, the market cooperated and did the same thing it's been doing for the past few months - a whole lot of volatility without a whole lot of movement in the end.
This week, we've got plenty of economic events that will likely shift markets up, then down, and then leave them settling somewhere around where they have been for the past few months.
Today's market opened strong, got stronger, then lost gains - it was a day of stock market VS bond market, as the stock market moved almost identically in the opposite directions. The DOW is still struggling to stay ahead of the 17,000 mark, and it hasn't been easy thus far. Poor economic indicators tomorrow could bring it back below the mark.
Tuesday will bring about the Chicago PMI and Consumer Confidence reports, both of which could cause some fluctuations in the market. Consumer confidence has seen some strong readings recently and the PMI reports have been all over the charts, so the results of tomorrow look like a big question mark at the moment.
Wednesday shows us the ADP Employment report & the national ISM index, along with a report on construction spending. It's always interesting to follow the construction spending report as that is a glimpse into the real estate market on a macro level, but all of these reports could have moderate impact on the markets.
Thursday and Friday bring in 2 employment reports and business reports. There could be market movers, especially from the employment news, but recently these factors have been all over the board, so it's impossible to say confidently whether there will be great, little, or no reaction.
My advice to anyone looking into getting a mortgage is to LOCK in a rate. Over the past few months, aside from a few good days and a few bad days, rates have been nothing but steady. 30 year fixed rates have remained in the low 4% range (dipping very briefly into the high 3's) for conforming loans, and if you can get a mortgage rate under 5%, you really should consider yourself lucky (on a historical scale and compared to a normal market's rate). Gambling is just not worth it right now unless you're looking at a very large loan amount - otherwise, that .125 you might gain (or lose) isn't worth the sleep that you'll be 100% guaranteed to lose worrying about it.