We know that markets go up and down and real estate is no exception. What has been normal in the past 10 years is violent ups and then downs. The long Island real estate market has not been stable for a decade. Recent statistics show there has been change. The first indicator is the absorption rate. The number of months it would take to absorb the current inventory at the current pace of sales. In Nassau County the absorption rate last Nov 1st was 7 months – a year later also 7 months. What’s different this year are the inventory levels. Last year there were 6697 homes still on the market as of Nov 1st. This year a healthier 7067. As inventory increases sales increase to keep up the pace. Buyers have more to look at the last two months of this year than they did last year. By contrast in 2011 (the worst year for real estate on Long Island in a long time) there were almost 10,000 houses for sale and the absorption rate was 13 months. We’ve come a long way in Nassau County Real Estate since 2011. We have a stable market with the absorption rate averaging 7 months for the almost 2 years.
The Syosset real estate market has been more robust than the County market. The absorption rate has averaged 5 months for the past 2 years. The big difference in Syosset this year is the number of homes still available on the market on Nov 1st. Last year it was an anemic 63 homes. This year buyers had a choice of 103 homes. By contrast there were 134 homes available Nov 1st 2011 and the absorption rate was over 10 months.
Looking forward without a crystal ball this market feels like the new normal. If the economy (especially the job market) keeps improving, I foresee several years of this new normal in Long Island real estate.
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