Monday Market Forecast - November 10-14, 2014

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Mortgage and Lending with Mason-McDuffie Mortgage, Conventional Loans, Jumbo Loans, FHA, 203(k), USDA, VA, NMLS #138061 MMCD #1141

Monday Market Forecast - November 10-14, 2014

 

 

      The elections are over, finally.  Sanity has finally been restored to Washington DC.  Just kidding.  But the financial markets may actually be Mortgagemore free from political influence in the coming weeks so that's a good thing.  Last week we saw a pretty boring week in the bond markets, with the exception of Friday, when the market moved in a favorable direction and brought rates down just a bit.
 
 
 
     Then today rolled around and took out most of Friday's gains.  The market had a pretty tough day, mostly as a reaction to Friday's rally.  The DOW pushed up slightly and is currently sitting at insanely high levels, which traditionally isn't good for bonds and mortgage rates, but the recent rally hasn't hurt us too bad.
 
 
      Tomorrow is Veterans Day, and that likely also played a role into the bond selling today.  Stock markets are opened tomorrow & bond markets are closed, so investors may have been either freeing up capital or hedging risk in the event that the DOW rally continues tomorrow.
 
 
     The rest of the week is fairly light on economic news, although toward the end of the week we'll see the monthly JOLTS report on Thursday followed by the retail sales report on Friday, which should be the big market mover this week.  Chances are much of the week will be a tug-of-war between stocks and bonds as investors look for the right place to park funds.
 
 
     My personal opinion is that the stock market is a bit overbought, especially coming off of a recent decline of nearly 1000 points.  The recent rally was fast and large, which presents the opportunity for a continued steady climb, or a reversal, which I think is more likely considering the all-time high levels of the DOW we're seeing.  17,000 was a tough ceiling to crack and I don't think the current stay above that mark will be a long one, at least not at current levels.  If I'm right, this should be good news for bonds & mortgage interest rates.
 
 
     My advice to clients is still to lock in, but not out of fear for higher rates, but simply because loan turn times are so fast right now that I don't think there's enough time in the loan process to see rates drop very much.  Rates rise faster than they fall, so a rate increase is more likely than a drop in a span of just a couple weeks.  Either way, I see rates remaining in a tight window that's had them within .25 of 4% for a 30 year fixed over the past several weeks.
 

 

 If you have any questions about rates, mortgage programs, or the direction of the market, ask an expert!  Or you can call me at 484.680.4852.

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Ambassador
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Debbie Reynolds
Platinum Properties - Clarksville, TN
Your Dedicated Clarksville TN Real Estate Agent

I like your commons sense approach John. I don't think it is ever wrong to take a good low rate and then you don't have to worry about it any longer.

Nov 10, 2014 08:05 AM #1
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Hannah Williams
Re/Max Eastern inc. - Philadelphia, PA
Expertise NE Philadelphia & Bucks 215-953-8818

John Meussner Sounds like we are in good shape for now

Nov 10, 2014 08:12 AM #2
Rainmaker
1,026,990
Susan Haughton
Long and Foster REALTORS (703) 470-4545 - Alexandria, VA
Susan & Mindy Team...Honesty. Integrity. Results.

I still cannot wrap my head around anyone worrying about rates rising from 4%!  LOL   We have really gotten spoiled by these rates.  As always, you have a good, common sense approach to the market.  Thanks!

Nov 10, 2014 09:18 AM #3
Rainmaker
915,215
Bob Ratliff
Robert Ratliff Realty - San Antonio, TX
"Sold with Bob"

John, many of your follower hang on to the Monday forecast from John Meussner, lock those rates in.

 

Happy Veterans Day.

Nov 10, 2014 09:21 AM #4
Rainmaker
1,143,921
David Shamansky
US Mortgages - David Shamansky - Highlands Ranch, CO
Creative, Aggressive & 560 FICO - OK, Colorado Mtg

Expect rates to take a little worsening as the market recovers from politcal bs (I mean media blitz and promise) hangover. I think the market will rebound some but not until likely late in the week or more probable next week

Nov 10, 2014 11:27 AM #5
Rainmaker
2,256,511
Joe Petrowsky
Mortgage Consultant, Right Trac Financial Group, Inc. NMLS # 2709 - Manchester, CT
Your Mortgage Consultant for Life

Good morning John. I'm still in a lock mode and don't see that changing anytime soon. Nice job with your thought process.

Nov 10, 2014 05:28 PM #6
Rainmaker
915,215
Bob Ratliff
Robert Ratliff Realty - San Antonio, TX
"Sold with Bob"

John, thank you for educational and helpful Monday forecast and have yourself a happy Veterans Day.

Nov 10, 2014 07:21 PM #7
Rainmaker
2,790,615
Kathleen Daniels
KD Realty - 408.972.1822 - San Jose, CA
San Jose Homes for Sale-Probate & Trust Specialist

John, "rates rise faster than they fall."  What a roller-coaster ride we are on ... with rates, the stock market, the government ... stop the ride - I want off (LOL)!

Nov 11, 2014 02:58 AM #8
Rainmaker
3,333,943
Michael Jacobs
Pasadena, CA
Los Angeles Pasadena 818.516.4393

Hi John -- sanity returns to Washington(yes, LOL) and later this week we are due to receive a JOLTS -- hmmm -- that sounds about right.

Nov 11, 2014 02:40 PM #9
Rainmaker
3,204,854
Endre Barath, Jr.
Berkshire Hathaway HomeServices - Beverly Hills, CA
Realtor - Los Angeles Home Sales 310.486.1002

John I am so saddened that the Markets are so Headline Driven....Endre

Nov 12, 2014 02:33 PM #10
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John Meussner

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