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Long Term Mortgage Rate Forecast Going Into Winter Market

Mortgage and Lending with iLoan - NMLS ID#1947845 NMLS 79048

As the winter weather hits or threatens to hit, many people who have actively or passively been searching for a home ask, “Should I just postpone the idea until spring?”  There are many reasons to either wait or hasten the purchase of a home.  If you happened to be considering mortgage rates as one variable in your decision, we thought that we’d share the one reliable forecasting model that we follow for long term mortgage rate forecasts: Mortgage Rate Forecast for 30 Year Conventional Loan 30 Year Conventional Mortgage Rate. Percent Per Year Average of Month.

Month Date Forecast Value 50% Correct +/- 80% Correct +/-
0 Sep 2014 4.170 +/-0.00 +/-0.00
1 Oct 2014 4.00 +/-0.05 +/-0.09
2 Nov 2014 4.01 +/-0.06 +/-0.12
3 Dec 2014 4.02 +/-0.07 +/-0.14
4 Jan 2015 3.96 +/-0.08 +/-0.16
5 Feb 2015 3.99 +/-0.09 +/-0.17
6 Mar 2015 3.94 +/-0.10 +/-0.19

Source: Forecasts.Org.  Updated Wednesday, October 15, 2014 - for the most up to date version of this forecast, click here. There are of course plenty of decent reasons to wrap up a purchase this year.  Some of those might be:

  • If you buy a home where you're carrying higher balances on your credit cards from holiday gifts, your credit score will be lower than it usually is and that could adversely affect the rate you get on your mortgage and the cost of your mortgage insurance. 35% of your credit score is based on the ratio of what you owe on your credit cards vs. what you're allowed to owe.
  • Tax advantages could be realized in in tax filing season vs. next.
  • Late fall and winter markets are easier to negotiate seller concessions (on price, terms or seller paid closing costs).

Whatever your considerations may be, we just wanted to make sure you were equipped with the information you needed to make a fully informed decision.

Posted by

Charles Dailey - Branch Manager, Loan Officer, Certified Military Housing Specialist - iLoan - NMLS ID# 79048 -  612.234.7283 - charles@charlesdailey.com

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