Basing your business on anecdotes is like buying lottery tickets!

Too often I read about some miraculous result based on an unorthodox premise that is purporting to go against the grain of conventional wisdom.

But the wise reader is cautious and takes such anecdotes with a grain of salt.

Because there is no cut and dry pattern of human behavior, one cannot expect any particular result. But if the same scenario has been played over time and time again and one can measure results, one can at the very least, have a statistical basis for decision making purposes.

Here are some examples of what I am trying to say:

“I bought a hundred dollars worth of lottery tickets and won a million buck so you should too!”

It is obvious that this anecdote has no basis in statistical fact. Very few people win a million dollars. If you want to know the exact number, read the lottery ticket. The odds are stacked way against you.

Here’s one I really heard one time:

“I never wear a seatbelt because my friend was in accident once and was thrown from the car and the officer that investigated the accident told her she probably would have died if she were wearing her seatbelt.”

Once again, this was statically akin to winning the lottery but the conclusion that wearing a seatbelt is MORE dangerous than not wearing one is based on an anecdote and not on fact.

Where am I going with this?

In real estate, there are many times when an anomaly occurs and we are pleasantly surprised at the result. However, if the same situation occurred one hundred times the results might be positive in only a handful of situations.

I would NEVER, and I mean NEVER base my business practices on the anecdotes of others.

I don’t play the lottery either. I save the money instead.

If that makes me lazy or stupid, then so be it!