Monday Market Forecast - November 17-21, 2014
For months, volatility was the name of the game. Then November rolled around, and all went quiet. The market has been steadily treading water for the past several weeks, seeing the elections come and go, and stock market volatility remain in check as well. Many people anticipated rate increases as the Fed's MBS purchase plan ceased (I wasn't one of them), but that didn't happen, and as we head into the holiday season, we may be able to ride the current low rate environment into 2015. If things are going to shake up, though, these next couple weeks could certainly be a catalyst.
Tomorrow we have an inflation report on the books, and I don't expect any surprises there - inflation has been kept in check for months and that trend is likely to continue as stagnation and deflation have been greater worries to the Fed in recent months. Speaking of the Fed, the latest meeting's minutes will be released Wednesday along with numbers on Housing starts - each of these could be market movers, although I don't anticipate any surprises from the Fed at this point. With the rest of the world's economies seemingly heading downhill, they're likely content with our slow growth, but likely worried of the ripple effects of a slowing global economy.
Thursday is the biggie this week - we've got a consumer inflation report, the Philly Fed report, existing home sales report, AND the report on jobless claims, all of which could push stocks and bonds around as investors try to decide on a direction.
Nothing to report for Friday, but Thursday's news could trickle into what is traditionally a day for bond selling and rate increases. This week will likely not have too much volatility, but I still have a strong recommendation toward locking loans in process. The market hasn't moved enough to make floating worthwhile, and loan turntimes are fast enough to make it tough to recoup any large single-day losses that may pop up. Borrowers looking for a 30 year fixed mortgage currently have an added incentive to lock in to an especially low rate.
If you have any questions about rates, mortgage programs, or the direction of the market, ask an expert! Or you can call me at 484.680.4852.