Monday Market Forecast - November 17-21, 2014

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Monday Market Forecast - November 17-21, 2014



      For months, volatility was the name of the game.  Then November rolled around, and all went quiet.  The market has been steadily treading water Mortgage marketfor the past several weeks, seeing the elections come and go, and stock market volatility remain in check as well.  Many people anticipated rate increases as the Fed's MBS purchase plan ceased (I wasn't one of them), but that didn't happen, and as we head into the holiday season, we may be able to ride the current low rate environment into 2015.  If things are going to shake up, though, these next couple weeks could certainly be a catalyst.
     The week started with an Industrial Production report that missed expectations slightly, with news of Japan's announcement of recession stealing most headlines.  While this isn't huge news at face value, it honestly scares the hell out of me - Japan has struggled with the fallout of an asset bubble bursting in the eary 90's and is referred to as the "lost decade" - clearly, they're still riding the struggle bus, and check out this excerpt from wikipedia, describing the "lost decade" -
     They discuss Asset bubbles based on easy money for unqualified borrowers?  Corporations in bed with the banking system?  Too big to fail banks?  Long periods of stagnation?  Wait - we're talking about Japan, right?  Although Japan isn't the most important economy in the world to us, I think we're on a very similar track - 20 years and they still haven't figured out how to raise rates & improve their economy without destroying it first - are we going to be able to figure it out?


I digress...


     Tomorrow we have an inflation report on the books, and I don't expect any surprises there - inflation has been kept in check for months and that trend is likely to continue as stagnation and deflation have been greater worries to the Fed in recent months.  Speaking of the Fed, the latest meeting's minutes will be released Wednesday along with numbers on Housing starts - each of these could be market movers, although I don't anticipate any surprises from the Fed at this point.  With the rest of the world's economies seemingly heading downhill, they're likely content with our slow growth, but likely worried of the ripple effects of a slowing global economy. 



     Thursday is the biggie this week - we've got a consumer inflation report, the Philly Fed report, existing home sales report, AND the report on jobless claims, all of which could push stocks and bonds around as investors try to decide on a direction.



     Nothing to report for Friday, but Thursday's news could trickle into what is traditionally a day for bond selling and rate increases.  This week will likely not have too much volatility, but I still have a strong recommendation toward locking loans in process.  The market hasn't moved enough to make floating worthwhile, and loan turntimes are fast enough to make it tough to recoup any large single-day losses that may pop up.  Borrowers looking for a 30 year fixed mortgage currently have an added incentive to lock in to an especially low rate.


 If you have any questions about rates, mortgage programs, or the direction of the market, ask an expert!  Or you can call me at 484.680.4852.


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Sybil Campbell
Long and Foster REALTORS® 5234 Monticello Ave Williamsburg, Virginia - Williamsburg, VA
REALTOR® ABR, SFR, SRES Williamsburg, Virginia

Thanks for the info John, I hope the market cotinues to do well.

Nov 17, 2014 02:02 PM #1
Sharon Parisi
United Real Estate Dallas - Dallas, TX
Dallas Homes

John, I feel we are living in perilous financial times and hoping I am wrong.

Nov 17, 2014 03:52 PM #2
Joe Petrowsky
Mortgage Consultant, Right Trac Financial Group, Inc. NMLS # 2709 - Manchester, CT
Your Mortgage Consultant for Life

Good morning John. Nice job with your report, you have touched on all the important factors. I'm still about locking sooner rather than later, even in this calm environment.

Nov 17, 2014 05:02 PM #3
Roger D. Mucci
Shaken...with a Twist 216.633.2092 - Euclid, OH
Lets shake things up at your home today!

So glad you're on top of all this stuff Big Guy.  When it comes to $$$ I know very little, other than how to spend it and that I can never have enough.

Nov 17, 2014 08:29 PM #4
Sharon Paxson
Compass - Newport Beach, CA
Newport Beach Real Estate

Hi John - thanks for the economic forecast, I do appreciate it and share the information with clients.

Nov 18, 2014 12:19 AM #5
Jon Kolsky
Kolsky Realty & Management - Long Beach, CA
Licensed California Real Estate Broker

John Meussner ~ thanks for keeping us in the loop! I look forward to these updates and always know you will tell it like it is

Nov 18, 2014 01:18 AM #6
John Meussner
Mason-McDuffie Mortgage, Conventional Loans, Jumbo Loans, FHA, 203(k), USDA, VA, - Walnut Creek, CA
#MortgageMadeEasy Walnut Creek, CA 484-680-4852

Sybil - thank you for the comment, I'm with you - what a nice present it would be to see rates drop for the holidays!


Sharon - I'm right there with you, I think you're right, but what can we do aside from grind away and work on our business?


Joe - thank you, I'm with you in regard to locking, just not worth the risk to float with where rates are sitting right now.


Roger - I try to keep atop the financial world, but I'm also very well versed in spending money & trying to get more & more of it, too!


Sharon - thank you so much, I'm glad that you find the info good enough to share!


Jon - thank you for the comment sir, I certainly don't hold back when it comes to this stuff - when it comes to the economy, I think the captain of the ship is drunk.

Nov 18, 2014 01:50 AM #7
Debbie Reynolds
Platinum Properties - Clarksville, TN
Your Dedicated Clarksville TN Real Estate Agent

Valuable information John. I like that you put your personal viewpoint in this and the why's behind it.

Nov 18, 2014 05:36 AM #8
Wayne and Jean Marie Zuhl
Samsel & Associates - Clark, NJ
The Last Names You'll Ever Need in Real Estate

Hi John,
Thank you again for posting this.  I look forward to reading it every week!

Nov 19, 2014 04:57 AM #9
Carol Williams
Although I'm retired, I love sharing my knowledge and learning from other real estate industry professionals. - Wenatchee, WA
Retired Agent / Broker / Property Manager

Hi John,
In honor of your 500,000 milestone I wanted to come back to your first post and say good job!  You did it in a little over a year.  That's amazing!  

Dec 10, 2015 12:37 PM #10
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John Meussner

#MortgageMadeEasy Walnut Creek, CA 484-680-4852
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