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Happy New Year!
Postscripts, Prognostications, and Resolutions
Last year was good for some, better than expected for others, and a promise of things to come for all. Economists are going on record en masse, predicting that 2015 will exhibit the fastest economic growth in a decade, supported by the strongest job growth since 1999 and constrained inflation instigated by the Fed’s continued love affair with near zero short-term interest rates. And if/when the Fed does begin raising rates, most economists agree that gradual increases will put the short-term rate at less than 1% by the end of 2015.
The latest ManpowerGroup Employment Outlook Survey shows a continuation of U.S. employers’ increased optimism with respect to the labor market, the result of which is a seasonally adjusted “Net Employment Outlook” of +16% for Q115, higher than its been in seven years. Of the more than 18,000 U.S. employers surveyed, 19% anticipate increasing staff levels during Q115 while 73% anticipated no significant change. All 50 states, the District of Columbia and Puerto Rico reported positive hiring outlooks, with Hawaii, North Dakota, Delaware, Michigan and Texas showing the strongest pro-hiring inclinations.
As the Boomers enjoy an appreciating housing market and a burgeoning stock market, retirements will accelerate, and within a few short years the rhetoric will turn to labor shortages as jobs begin to chase people.
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