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Boom, Bust, or a Game of Chicken?

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Real Estate Agent 559072 643065

Travel south and southeast of the Texas Hill Country and you find yourself in the boom town speckled geographical area that sits atop the Eagle Ford oil shale play. Over the past few years, the economic growth from this and other shale plays in Texas and from around the U.S. have contributed to an increase in land and property values here in Texas in general and the hill country in particular.

Pump Jack

But with the price of oil hovering around the $50.00 per barrel level, what does the future hold for property valuation and the Texas real estate industry? That was the question of the day at the SABOR annual market forecast breakfast yesterday. Only time will reveal the ultimate answer to that question.

Theories abound as to why oil prices are falling, but the bigger question has to do with the "if" and "when" of whether or not prices will rise again. If extracting oil from shale indeed requires a $50.00-60.00 per barrell floor and prices keep falling, Texas property values may stand to suffer.

Forbes points out that the estimated break even price per barrel for Saudis is in the $99.00 range. If that's the case, then are the Saudis betting that they can break the production backbone of Russia, Iran, and maybe even the U.S. shale producers before their $900 billion in reserves runs out? Maybe so, but how long does it take at today's prices to strain the cash reserves of the Saudi's? That may well depend upon how far the prices fall and for how long they stay low. 

Meanwhile, we'll make the most of it here and enjoy our sub $2.00 per gallon gasoline prices.

 

 

Comments(3)

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Tom Arstingstall, General Contractor, Dry Rot, Water Damage Sacramento, El Dorado County - (916) 765-5366
Dry Rot and Water Damage www.tromlerconstruction.com Mobile - 916-765-5366 - Placerville, CA
General Contractor, Dry Rot and Water Damage

I don't know the economics of the oil industry but I'm sure the prices will again rise. Of course California will likely slap on some taxes while it is still low first.  :)

Jan 09, 2015 01:16 PM
RVA HomePRO Michael Hottman
RVA HomePRO Realtor with Keller Williams serving Hanover, Henrico, Chesterfiled and Richmond, Virginia - Glen Allen, VA
Helping you achieve goals in life & real estate

While the low prices at the pump are welcome relief to my wallet, I am concerned what this means for other parts of the economy and other countries.

Jan 09, 2015 02:54 PM
Traci and Richmond Frasier
Boerne, TX
The Hill Country Dream Team

 Tom, I am familiar with the proclivity your state has for slapping on taxes here and there. I hear about it from folks moving to my area from Cali all the time! 

Michael, we get a lot of folks moving from our area from yours as well. Though a lot of that traffic is due to connections running through the San Antonio military bases. It will be interesting to see how these economics play out in dynamics.

Jan 09, 2015 09:38 PM