Economic Forecast Breakfast – February 11, 2015
I attended the 2015 Economic Forecast Breakfast last Wednesday, presented by the St Louis Association of Realtors. The presentations covered the National & St Louis employment, labor force and the housing overview.
Presenters were William Emmons, an economist with the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis; Ruth, Serginian, Director of Economic Research & Analysis of the St. Louis Regional Chamber; and Monica Conners, Vice President, Business Retention & Expansion, of the St. Louis Economic Development Partnership.
Following are some notes I took during their presentations:
2015 is looking to be a good year for the US economy, shaping up to be the best year in about a decade, with slower growth after 2015. While interest rates are expected to remain low for the long term, investors do expect a gradual increase in interest rates.
Job growth, low interest rates, and pent-up demand with help the nation’s housing market. The St Louis market follows national trends, but is slower, and will lag due to slow population and employment growth (Kansas City and other Midwest markets are growing slowly, too). St. Louis has now finally reached the point of job growth we had in 2001. “The area is good at job creation, but bad at population growth”.
Forces in 2015 that will help the housing market:
1. Historic drop in gas and oil prices, with oil prices being down 50-60% – lower heating costs. This puts money in consumers’ pockets.
2. There is a better job market, with the fastest job growth in 15 years.
3. Stronger financial conditions – strong stock market will be a boost to investor wealth. High stock prices make for more favorable financing conditions.
More positive notes regarding the St. Louis area – Employment has outgrown population since 1990. We still have a very affordable housing market compared to other parts of the nation. The St Louis housing market is likely to continue its slow and steady recovery.
Now for the words of caution. This growth will not last forever. The Baby Boomer generation is at or nearing retirement age. The number of younger people (workers) is not sufficient to replace them. The projected annual change in population aged 18-64 is almost 0 percent. The job market will drop because there are not enough people to fill the jobs. National projections of annual change in employment are sobering. In 2015, 184,000 jobs created per month; In 2016, it drops to 148,000 per month; and by 2017, it drops to 83,000 per month.
I have been representing home buyers and home sellers in the St Louis Metropolitan Area since 1997. I am a Certified Residential Specialist (CRS), Accredited Buyer's Representative (ABR), and GRI (Graduate, Realtor Institute).
Affiliations: Member St Louis Association of Realtors (SLAR), Member Missouri Association of Realtors (MAR), Member National Association of Realtors (NAR), Member Real Estate Buyer's Agent Council (REBAC), Member Council of Residential Specialists (CRS).
St Louis Real Estate, St Louis Real Estate Agent, St Louis Realtor, St Louis Realty, St. Louis City and St. Louis County Residential Real Estate, Homes, Condos, Lofts & Townhomes.
St. Louis City Neighborhoods: Benton Park, Benton Park West, Bevo Mill, Botanical Heights, St. Vincent Park, Carondelet, Central West End, Clifton Heights, Columbus Square, Compton Heights, Downtown, Dutchtown, Forest Park Southeast, Fox Park, The Gate District, Gravois Park, The Hill, Holly Hills, Lafayette Park, Lasalle, Lindenwood Park, Northampton, Shaw, Skinker/DeBaliviere, Soulard, Southwest Garden, St. Louis Hills, Tower Grove South, Tower Grove East, South City, Wyndown/Skinker.
St. Louis County Communities: Affton, Shrewsbury, Webster Groves, Maplewood, Richmond Heights, Brentwood, Clayton, University City, Bayless, Hancock Place, Lindbergh, Mehlville, Kirkwood, Ladue, Ritenour, Parkway North, Parkway Central, Parkway West, Parkway South, Valley Park, Rockwood Summit, Marquette, Eureka, Lafayette, Crestwood, Saint Louis
A Missouri Licensed Realtor -
Notary Public, State of Missouri -
**All Personal photographs and images/logos are the property of and copyrighted by Tim Tanz, and may not be reproduced or used without his permission.**