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Mortgage Rate Update 4-7-2015: Trends and Projections

By Jason E. Gordon

Mortgage and Lending with CMG Mortgage, San Diego, CA NMLS 259027

April 07, 2015 02:45 AM

Mortgage Backed Securities have declined this morning following a down afternoon yesterday. The JOLTS report was near last month's levels. No further economic data will be released today.

Compared to yesterday's closing, the market has opened with a 0.125 - 0.250 worsening to the Points/Credits associated with any given interest rate option.

This daily mortgage interest rate report is designed to provide Borrowers & Real Estate Profesionals with factual data regarding where rates are at any given time and what trends are propelling current mortgage pricing on any given day. Feel free to browse the library and research historical rate updates dating back over 2 years at www.JasonGordon.info whenever desired. To make things easier, I have also posted a quick report on How To Read The Charts Below.

Also, make sure to learn THE TOP 10 THINGS TO KNOW ABOUT MORTGAGE RATES (to help understand the relationship between rates & fees/credits) along with THE TRUTH BEHIND MORTGAGE QUOTES (to better understand the relationship between up-front closing costs and mortgage interest rates so you don't get duped by clever advertising campaigns). Remember, we all make better decisions in life when we have the actual facts to analyze...share this report with those whom you care about!

San Diego Mortgage Rates - Jason Gordon - www.JasonGordonMortgage.com

The Mortgage Street Smarts of where mortgage interest rates are going (and why):

The following information is current as of Tuesday 4-7-2015 and will help you understand today's best mortgage rates. If you are a Buyer/Borrower who is still on the fence (or if you are a Real Estate Agent attempting to educate your "on the fence" Buyer), please review these trends and secure an historically low interest rate before it is too late.

The market closed Monday with a WORSENING to pricing. Monday's WORSENING netted a change of 24 basis points (bps).

(Note: Upward activity on these charts is GOOD, downward activity is BAD)

Best Mortgage Rates San Diego - www.GordonMortgage.com

The following chart summarizes todays market activity:

Best Mortgage Rates San Diego - www.GordonMortgage.com

The following chart shows market activity over the past 10 days (hint: green is good, red is bad)

Best Mortgage Rates San Diego - www.GordonMortgage.com

The following chart shows market activity over the past 1 month:

Best Mortgage Rates San Diego - www.GordonMortgage.com

Daily Interest Rate Snapshot (sample of rates from one of the country's largest Lenders...individual pricing will vary based on specific Borrower qualifications): NOTE: This Lender has quoted a 1.00% Origination Fee (1 Point) to accompany this pricing. It bears noting that this chart does not necessarily represent todays best mortgage rates.

Market Commentary (Neil Trenerry)

Market Update

FNMA

Cpn 2.5 Chg -0.0313 Bid 99.14063

Cpn 3.0 Chg -0.0313 Bid 102.35938

Cpn 3.5 Chg -0.0469 Bid 105.07813

Cpn 4.0 Chg -0.0625 Bid 106.84375

FNMA Cpn 3.0 Forward Delivery over current Month pricing

1 Month Chg 0.0000 Bid 102.13281 Spread 0.22656

2 Months Chg -0.0039 Bid 101.90234 Spread 0.23047

Treasury

UST 5 YR Chg -0.0938 Bid 100.24219 Yield 1.3250

UST 10 YR Chg -0.0625 Bid 100.84375 Yield 1.9060

UST 30 YR Chg 0.1563 Bid 98.96875 Yield 2.5490

Currency

Euro Bid 1.0852 Chg -0.0069

Pound Bid 1.4877 Chg -0.0001

Yen Bid 120.180 Chg 0.660

Light Crude

Last 51.41

Key Economic Data:

Redbook

MM: Actual 1.3%, Last 1.2%.

YY: Actual 3.4%, Last 3.0%.

7:00: JOLTS Job Openings for Feb: Consensus 5.010m, Last 4.998m.

12:00: Consumer Credit for Feb: Consensus 12.50b, Last 11.56b.

Advice:

Treasuries fell as the U.S. prepared to sell $24 billion in three-year notes at the lowest auction yield in more than a year. While U.S. yields are at historically low levels, they still offer a premium over those of other developed economies. That helped lure international buyers at the three-year auction in March, when they purchased the most in almost five years. Threes are an attractive front-end yielder in the U.S. versus the rest of the world, said Tyler Tucci, a U.S. government-bond strategist at Royal Bank of Scotland Plcs RBS Securities unit in Stamford, Connecticut, one of 22 primary dealers that trade with the Federal Reserve. Demand should be pretty good. The benchmark Treasury 10-year yield rose two basis points, of 0.02 percentage point, to 1.92 percent as of 8:41 a.m. New York time after climbing six basis points on Monday. The price of the 2 percent note due in February 2025 fell 7/32, or $2.19 per $1,000 face amount, to 100 23/32. The three-year note yield rose three basis points to 0.83

percent. The notes on sale today traded at 0.865 percent, the least since March 2014. In the previous sale of three-year debt on March 10, investors bought $24 billion of the debt at a yield of 1.104 percent, which was the highest since April 2011. Indirect bidders, a class of investors that includes foreign central banks, bought 51.4 percent of the notes, the most since April 2010. The U.S. is scheduled to sell $21 billion of 10-year notes on Wednesday, followed by $13 billion of 30-year bonds the

following day. Treasuries returned 1.9 percent this year through Monday, according to the Bloomberg U.S. Treasury Bond Index, after earning 6.2 percent last year. The securities have advanced for five consecutive quarters, the longest winning streak in the data starting in March 2010.

My position on MBS:

Short term Stays Long.

Long term Stays Short.

I still feel this market could go either way.

Long = I anticipate pricing to improve which leads to lower Rates.

Neutral = Market should stay close to open plus or minimums 25bps.

Short = I anticipate pricing to weaken which leads to higher Rates.

Short term = 1 - 2 days out

Long term = 30+ days out

Market Commentary (Dan Rawitch)

http://www.ratewatch.com/ratewatchnow.html

102.60 is a very powerful point of resistance and we've now failed 4 times to break through it. The most recent and failed attempt has caused us to go down and test the bottom of the channel, as I had expected. Now, it appears as if we will slide sideways and down a bit, thus moving us out of the channel. If this happens, we will most likely see a trading range of 102.00 to 102.60. Not necessarily a bad thing, as it will give the market time to build some steam and prepare for another attempt to break 102.60.

Trusted Industry Advisor

Jason Gordon Mortgage - www.GordonMortgage.com

The above information was compiled and distributed by San Diego Residential Mortgage Specialist, Jason Gordon in an effort to provide transparency regarding true mortgage rate activity and market guidance to consumers and professionals interested in this activity. All Market Commentary is provided via The Mortgage Coach and/or their RateWatch technology software.

As a Certified Mortgage Planning Specialist (CMPS) Certified Distressed Property Expert (CDPE) Certified Mortgage Coach (CMC), and Certified Military Housing Specialist (CMHS), Jason E Gordon utilizes his advanced training to examine a prospective Client's complete financial picture, while carefully listening to their overall goals. If it is mutually agreed that a new loan makes sense to pursue, Jason strives to make the entire loan process as seamless as possible. He truly believes that providing open communication and patient educational guidance to his Clients and Business Alliances has been a pivotal component to building his business, while enhancing his reputation in the Mortgage Industry as a Trusted Advisor. Visit www.GordonMortgage.com or www.CrossApproval.com or more information.

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