Market on the Hump - 3/18/15

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Mortgage and Lending with Mason-McDuffie Mortgage, Conventional Loans, Jumbo Loans, FHA, 203(k), USDA, VA, NMLS #138061 MMCD #1141

Market on the Hump - 3/18/15

 

 

     I've been slacking - sorry folks.  Haven't done a Monday forecast or Hump DayFriday wrap up in a while, and I'll try to be better! 

 

BUT

 

     Here's something new - adding to the mix of what's been a pretty volatile market over the past year, I figured a mid-week update would be a good idea to keep you in the loop as we go.  So here we go with my first "market on the hump" post (I considered calling it your weekly humpdate - get it...update...on hump day..see what I did there?....let me know which you like more).

 

 

First to recap (since I've been slacking)

 

 

     The last few months have shown us lower rates followed by a recent spike that took many into "going to wait to refinance" mode.  Looking at the long term historical trends, rates are still beyond fantastic.  Like...really, really, really good.  Short term, though, we're currently a little above historic lows.  Traders, like most of us, are confused as heck when it comes to predictions and what the market is doing.  Unemployment rates are falling but wages are stagnant and underemployment is still rampant.  Housing has it's good months and bad months, retail sales are in the toilet, oil has plummeted (for this, I am thankful..roadtrip anyone?), and the dollar has soared - good for those with international wanderlust, bad for overseas companies reliant on American goods (and therefore, bad for American exports).

 

     Just as the economy seemed to be doing well enough to scare everyone into "are rates going up!?" mode a few weeks ago, we've once again been hit with some poor economic reports, a pretty bleak outlook on our economy from the Fed, and the prospect that although there is still a target for an increased Fed rate later this year, the increase will probably be smaller than previously thought.

 

 

 

So what's up this week?

 

     Well, the past 2 weeks (this week included, so far) we've been slapped back to reality that the economy, both domestic and international, is not well.  Overseas, there are still debt issues, and economies throughout the Eurozone are looking, as the French would say, "ne good pas". 

 

 

     Domestically, they're trying to convince us that falling oil prices are a bad thing (seeing nearly $5/gallon here in CA less than a year back is going to make that a tough sell on me), while the stock market keeps pushing up - although, with it's foundation resting largely on Monopoly money, this scares me a bit - and housing numbers have not been spectacular.  A lack of inventory continues to plague many markets, and even with low rates, the industry has been consistent, but not running too far in the green.

 

BUT

 

     Thanks to poor economic performance, a less than exuberant Fed outlook, inflation still being completely absent (outside of the grocery stores, amIright?), and a skyrocketing dollar, rates have come all the way back down to a level just above historic lows.  Just today, mortgage backed securities had their best day in recent memory following the Fed announcement that "things ain't great" (the exact words used in Fed testimony may have varied slightly).

 

 

     On this hump day, rates are great.  Going into the end of the week, we'll pay attention to see if traders have buyers remorse and decide that today's news made them too excited (in which case we'd see some selling and rates coming back up just a bit by week's end), or if this is just a trend reversal from a few week's ago when things were a little less certain.

 

 

     Long term, my outlook is that rates still have room to go down.  With that, my advice is to lock current rates.  Why?  Because on the way down, there will be some spikes, and the mortgage process moves too quickly to compensate for those spikes within the 30 day window your loan is likely to close in.  Lock in, and be happy - you caught us near the bottom. 

 

Happy hump day folks!

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Rainmaker
2,868,764
Kathleen Daniels
KD Realty - 408.972.1822 - San Jose, CA
San Jose Homes for Sale-Probate & Trust Specialist

John, whatever you call it ... it's all good when it comes from you. Your market updates are always informative and through provoking. If you are taking votes ... I'd go with weekly market humpdate

Mar 18, 2015 07:15 AM #1
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Hannah Williams
Re/Max Eastern inc. - Philadelphia, PA
Expertise NE Philadelphia & Bucks 215-953-8818

John Meussner  this sounds good to me . Spring is in the air here we are really busy here

Mar 18, 2015 07:38 AM #2
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John Meussner
Mason-McDuffie Mortgage, Conventional Loans, Jumbo Loans, FHA, 203(k), USDA, VA, - Walnut Creek, CA
#MortgageMadeEasy Walnut Creek, CA 484-680-4852

Thanks Kathleen, from here on out I think I'll be providing a humpdate : )

 

Hannah, glad to hear things are heating up in your market!  I've been steady in my PA & DE business but haven't noticed a big jump, hopefully that'll change over the next month.

Mar 18, 2015 07:55 AM #3
Rainmaker
5,766,305
Roy Kelley
Realty Group Referrals - Gaithersburg, MD

Thanks for your update. Enjoy a most productive March.

Mar 18, 2015 10:12 AM #4
Rainmaker
2,134,929
Grant Schneider
Performance Development Strategies - Armonk, NY
Your Coach Helping You Create Successful Outcomes

John - I like calling it hump day.  Great positive update.  Just a few more days before Spring.

Mar 18, 2015 11:13 AM #5
Rainmaker
2,406,904
Evelyn Johnston
Friends & Neighbors Real Estate - Elkhart, IN
The People You Know, Like and Trust!

Things were heating up here just under two weeks ago, I thought we were on our way, but it has slowed down.  A few new buyer leads, but not much else. With such low inventory you would think the houses that ARE on the market would sell...

Mar 18, 2015 12:14 PM #6
Rainer
147,450
Paul Collier
Patriot Home Mortgage - Huntington Beach, CA
Paul Collier

I've been slacking on reading and responding, so I'm glad I"m not far behind you. Good to see the stock market closing high, whether or not it's a pattern that continues. I think we can sell some homes if we can bring prices down a bit, nice that inventory is up a tick.

Have a great week!

Mar 18, 2015 12:48 PM #7
Rainmaker
3,617,455
Michael Jacobs
Pasadena, CA
Los Angeles Pasadena 818.516.4393

Hi John -- as Kathleen Daniels commented it really doesn't matter the day of the week, you have a unique voice for expressing trends in the financial world.  I will admit a mid-week update fits well in the sea of information that comes our way.  

Mar 18, 2015 01:18 PM #8
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John Meussner
Mason-McDuffie Mortgage, Conventional Loans, Jumbo Loans, FHA, 203(k), USDA, VA, - Walnut Creek, CA
#MortgageMadeEasy Walnut Creek, CA 484-680-4852

Thanks Roy, appreciate you stopping by.

 

Grant - I'm glad the rest of the country is finally seeing some spring.  I hope we get some cool spring weather before we dive into summer.

 

Evelyn - I don't think your market is alone in that mindset.  Gotta just keep on keeping on, the buyers are out there, and the sellers will come.

 

Paul - such a struggle to keep up with the volatility from week to week.  Even tougher to make a call on where things are headed.  Thanks for the comment.

 

Michael Jacobs appreciate that, I'll try to keep up with the mid-week updates.

Mar 18, 2015 02:40 PM #9
Rainer
355,890
Nina Rogoff
RE/MAX Executive Realty - Medfield, MA
Sells Real Estate!

Hump day, yes. Humpdate...bad idea! lol

I've been thinking rates will go down a little bit longer but then start to rise in the summer. Maybe that will get some sellers to get moving to put their home on the market and buy a new house before rates go up even higher???

Mar 19, 2015 04:09 PM #10
Rainmaker
1,906,155
Michael J. Perry
KW Elite - Lancaster, PA
Lancaster, PA Relo Specialist

It realy is an amazing time to take on a 30 year loan at less than 4% !

Mar 30, 2015 10:42 PM #11
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John Meussner

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