Mortgage Rate Update 5-1-2015: Trends & Projections

Mortgage and Lending with AmeriFirst Financial Inc, San Diego, CA NMLS 259027

May 01, 2015 04:59 AM

Construction Spending, the ISM Index, and Consumer Sentiment reports all came in below expectations today. However, a rally in stocks has moved Mortgage Backed Security prices lower this morning after a rally yesterday afternoon.

Compared to yesterday's closing, the market has opened with a 0.125 improvement to the Points/Credits associated with any given interest rate option.

This daily mortgage interest rate report is designed to provide Borrowers & Real Estate Professionals with factual data regarding where rates are at any given time and what trends are propelling current mortgage pricing on any given day. Feel free to browse the library and research historical rate updates dating back over 2 years at www.JasonGordon.info whenever desired. To make things easier, I have also posted a quick report on How To Read The Charts Below.

Also, make sure to learn THE TOP 10 THINGS TO KNOW ABOUT MORTGAGE RATES (to help understand the relationship between rates & fees/credits) along with THE TRUTH BEHIND MORTGAGE QUOTES (to better understand the relationship between up-front closing costs and mortgage interest rates so you don't get duped by clever advertising campaigns). Remember, we all make better decisions in life when we have the actual facts to analyze...share this report with those whom you care about!

San Diego Mortgage Rates - Jason Gordon - www.JasonGordonMortgage.com

The Mortgage Street Smarts of where mortgage interest rates are going (and why):

The following information is current as of Friday 5-1-2015 and will help you understand today's best mortgage rates. If you are a Buyer/Borrower who is still on the fence (or if you are a Real Estate Agent attempting to educate your "on the fence" Buyer), please review these trends and secure an historically low interest rate before it is too late.

The market closed Thursday with an IMPROVEMENT to pricing. Thursday's IMPROVEMENT netted a change of 22 basis points (bps).

(Note: Upward activity on these charts is GOOD, downward activity is BAD)

Lowest Mortgage Rates in San Diego - www.GordonMortgage.com

The following chart summarizes todays market activity:

Lowest Mortgage Rates in San Diego - www.GordonMortgage.com

The following chart shows market activity over the past 10 days (hint: green is good, red is bad)

Lowest Mortgage Rates in San Diego - www.GordonMortgage.com

The following chart shows market activity over the past 1 month:

Lowest Mortgage Rates in San Diego - www.GordonMortgage.com

Daily Interest Rate Snapshot (sample of rates from one of the country's largest Lenders...individual pricing will vary based on specific Borrower qualifications): NOTE: This Lender has quoted a 1.00% Origination Fee (1 Point) to accompany this pricing. It bears noting that this chart does not necessarily represent todays best mortgage rates.

Market Commentary (Neil Trenerry)

Market Update

FNMA

Cpn 2.5 Chg 0.1250 Bid 98.18750

Cpn 3.0 Chg -0.1563 Bid 101.67188

Cpn 3.5 Chg -0.1250 Bid 104.70313

Cpn 4.0 Chg -0.0625 Bid 106.84375

FNMA Cpn 3.0 Forward Delivery over current Month pricing

1 Month Chg 0.0000 Bid 101.43359 Spread 0.23828

2 Months Chg 0.0000 Bid 101.14453 Spread 0.28906

Treasury

UST 5 YR Chg -0.1719 Bid 99.56250 Yield 1.4660

UST 10 YR Chg -0.3438 Bid 99.32813 Yield 2.0760

UST 30 YR Chg -0.8281 Bid 94.21875 Yield 2.7870

Currency

Euro Bid 1.1143 Chg 0.0039

Pound Bid 1.5233 Chg -0.0117

Yen Bid 119.930 Chg 0.600

Light Crude

Last 59.17

Key Economic Data:

6:45: Markit Mfg PMI Final for Apr: Last 54.2.

7:00: Construction Spending for Mar: Consensus 0.5%, Last -0.1%.

7:00: ISM for Apr

Manufacturing PMI: Consensus 52.0, Last 51.5.

Mfg Prices Paid: Last 39.0.

Mfg Employment Index: Consensus 50.2, Last 50.0.

Mfg New Orders Index: Last 51.8.

7:00: Univ of Michigan for Apr

Sentiment: Consensus 96.0, Last 95.9.

Condition: Consensus 108.3, Last 108.2.

Expectation: Consensus 88.1, Last 88.0.

1Yr Inflation: Last 2.5%.

5-Yr Inflation: Last 2.6%.

7:30: ECRI Weekly Index: Last 133.2.

10:30 Vehicle Sales for Apr

Domestic Cars: Consensus 5.49m, Last 5.45m.

Domestic Trucks: Consensus 8.00m, Last 8.24m.

Total Sales: Consensus 16.90m, Last 17.15m.

All Cars: Last 7.71m.

All Trucks: Last 9.44m.

Advice:

Treasuries fell before manufacturing and consumer confidence reports that may reinforce speculation the Federal Reserve is on track to raise interest rates, giving investors a reason to add to Aprils selloff. Benchmark 10-year note yields were set for their second consecutive weekly increase. The Institute for Supply Managements index climbed in April from its lowest level since May 2013, according to the median prediction of analysts in a Bloomberg survey before Fridays release. Signs of a resilient economy and a Fed thats ready to lift borrowing costs this year are denting demand for Treasuries. Our medium-term view is that Treasury yields go higher, said Orlando Green, a fixed-income strategist at Credit Agricole SAs corporate and investment banking unit in London. Green, who predicts the Fed will raise interest rates in September, said an ISM reading near the market consensus will be still solid -- not spectacular, but solid. Benchmark Treasury 10-year yields rose four basis points,

or 0.04 percentage point, to 2.07 percent as of 6:53 a.m. New York time, based on Bloomberg Bond Trader data. The yield touched 2.11 percent on Thursday, the highest since March 13. The 2 percent note due in February 2025 fell 11/32, or $3.44 per

$1,000 face amount, to 99 3/8.

My position on MBS:

Short term Stays Short.

Long term Stays Short.

Long = I anticipate pricing to improve which leads to lower Rates.

Neutral = Market should stay close to open plus or minimums 25bps.

Short = I anticipate pricing to weaken which leads to higher Rates.

Short term = 1 - 2 days out

Long term = 30+ days out

Market Commentary (Dan Rawitch)

http://www.ratewatch.com/ratewatchnow.html

Construction Spending, ISM Index and Michigan Sentiment all missed expections, this should be good for bonds, but the fear in the market still remains. We need to hold 101.40, if we dont, we will test 101.00. IF we hold 101.40, we should run up to 101.80 and take a shot at closing the gap. The fear could take a few days to cycle through the markets.

Your thought for the day: "Five step recipe for anything you want- 1-Think it. 2- Focus on it. 3- Get Passionate about it. 4- Move toward it. 5. It is yours, take it. "

Trusted Industry Advisor

Jason Gordon Mortgage - www.GordonMortgage.com

The above information was compiled and distributed by San Diego Residential Mortgage Specialist, Jason Gordon in an effort to provide transparency regarding true mortgage rate activity and market guidance to consumers and professionals interested in this activity. All Market Commentary is provided via The Mortgage Coach and/or their RateWatch technology software.

As a Certified Mortgage Planning Specialist (CMPS) Certified Distressed Property Expert (CDPE) Certified Mortgage Coach (CMC), and Certified Military Housing Specialist (CMHS), Jason E Gordon utilizes his advanced training to examine a prospective Client's complete financial picture, while carefully listening to their overall goals. If it is mutually agreed that a new loan makes sense to pursue, Jason strives to make the entire loan process as seamless as possible. He truly believes that providing open communication and patient educational guidance to his Clients and Business Alliances has been a pivotal component to building his business, while enhancing his reputation in the Mortgage Industry as a Trusted Advisor. Visit www.GordonMortgage.com or www.CrossApproval.com or more information.

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