Mortgage Rate Update 5-6-2015: Trends & Projections

Mortgage and Lending with AmeriFirst Financial Inc, San Diego, CA NMLS 259027

Yet another tough day for mortgage rates! Mortgage Backed Securities have contnued to trend down despite weaker than expected ADP Employment data. First quarter productivity came in at the consensus.

Compared to yesterday's closing, the market has opened with a 0.125 - 0.250 worsening the Points/Credits associated with any given interest rate option.

This daily mortgage interest rate report is designed to provide Borrowers & Real Estate Professionals with factual data regarding where rates are at any given time and what trends are propelling current mortgage pricing on any given day. Feel free to browse the library and research historical rate updates dating back over 2 years at whenever desired.  To make things easier, I have also posted a quick report on How To Read The Charts Below.

Also, make sure to learn THE TOP 10 THINGS TO KNOW ABOUT MORTGAGE RATES (to help understand the relationship between rates & fees/credits) along with THE TRUTH BEHIND MORTGAGE QUOTES (to better understand the relationship between up-front closing costs and mortgage interest rates so you don't get duped by clever advertising campaigns). Remember, we all make better decisions in life when we have the actual facts to analyze...share this report with those whom you care about!

San Diego Mortgage Rates - Jason Gordon -

The Mortgage Street Smarts of where mortgage interest rates are going (and why):

The following information is current as of Wednesday 5-6-2015 and will help you understand today's best mortgage rates. If you are a Buyer/Borrower who is still on the fence (or if you are a Real Estate Agent attempting to educate your "on the fence" Buyer), please review these trends and secure an historically low interest rate before it is too late.

The market closed Tuesday with a SIGNIFICANT WORSENING to pricing. Tuesday's SIGNIFICANT WORSENING netted a change of 40 basis points (bps).

(Note: Upward activity on these charts is GOOD, downward activity is BAD)

Jason Gordon Mortgage San Diego

The following chart summarizes todays market activity:

Jason Gordon Mortgage San Diego

The following chart shows market activity over the past 10 days (hint: green is good, red is bad)

Jason Gordon Mortgage San Diego

The following chart shows market activity over the past 1 month:

Jason Gordon Mortgage San Diego

Daily Interest Rate Snapshot (sample of rates from one of the country's largest Lenders...individual pricing will vary based on specific Borrower qualifications): NOTE: This Lender has quoted a 1.00% Origination Fee (1 Point) to accompany this pricing. It bears noting that this chart does not necessarily represent todays best mortgage rates.

Jason Gordon Mortgage San Diego

Market Commentary (Neil Trenerry)

Market Update
Cpn 2.5 Chg -0.2969 Bid 97.01563
Cpn 3.0 Chg -0.0313 Bid 100.90625
Cpn 3.5 Chg 0.0156 Bid 104.17188
Cpn 4.0 Chg -0.0156 Bid 106.59375
FNMA Cpn 3.0 Forward Delivery over current Month pricing
1 Month Chg 0.0039 Bid 100.66016 Spread 0.24609
2 Months Chg 0.0000 Bid 100.36328 Spread 0.29688
UST 5 YR Chg 0.0000 Bid 99.16406 Yield 1.5500
UST 10 YR Chg -0.0781 Bid 98.32813 Yield 2.1910
UST 30 YR Chg -0.2031 Bid 91.71875 Yield 2.9180
Euro Bid 1.1287 Chg 0.0104
Pound Bid 1.5225 Chg 0.0045
Yen Bid 119.590 Chg -0.230
Light Crude
Last 61.81


Key Economic Data:
Market Index: Actual 427.3, Last 447.9.
MBA Purchase: Actual 207.1, Last 205.4.
Refinance Index: Actual 1697.2, Last 1850.0.
30-Yr Rate: Actual 3.93%, Last 3.85%.
ADP National Employment for Apr: Actual 169.0k, Consensus 200k, Last 189k.
Labor Cost Prelim for Q1: Actual 5.0%, Consensus 4.3%, Last 4.1%.
Productivity Prelim for Q1: Actual -1.9%, Consensus -1.8%, Last -2.2%.


Companies in April added the fewest number of workers in more than a year, a sign progress in the U.S. labor market may be moderating along with the economy. The 169,000 advance in employment was the smallest since January 2014 and followed a 175,000 gain in March that was smaller than initially estimated, according to figures Wednesday from the Roseland, New Jersey-based ADP Research Institute. The median forecast of 43 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for an April increase of 200,000. Employers, coming off the biggest year for hiring since 1999, are limiting additions to headcounts as they assess demand following a first-quarter economic slowdown. Smaller payroll gains may extend the time needed to take up slack in the labor market, a precondition for faster growth in wages that have been slow to accelerate. Its disappointing, but I dont think its necessarily a disaster, said Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James Financial Inc. in St. Petersburg, Florida. Hes the second-best forecaster of ADP payrolls over the past two years, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. A gain of 169,000 is still pretty good. In a normal situation, that would be great, but we still have a lot of slack that we need to take up from the
recession. Estimates in the Bloomberg survey ranged from payroll gains of 170,000 to 270,000. Marchs figure was revised down from a previously reported 189,000.


My position on MBS:


Short term Stays Short.
Long term Stays Short.


Long = I anticipate pricing to improve which leads to lower Rates.
Neutral = Market should stay close to open plus or minimums 25bps.
Short = I anticipate pricing to weaken which leads to higher Rates.


Short term = 1 - 2 days out
Long term = 30+ days out


Market Commentary (Dan Rawitch)

This bearish market just wont go away. We are down again and the trader mentality remains negative. Today we had a big miss on ADP Jobs...This should have sparked some buying, but the market has discounted it, just as its discounted every other piece of positive bond news. Now we have to wait for the Employment numbers at the end of the week. We could see some more panic selling prior to the release of that report and then hopefully find bottom.

Let's hope the market snaps out of the current sentiment!

Trusted Industry Advisor

Jason Gordon Mortgage -

The above information was compiled and distributed by San Diego Residential Mortgage Specialist, Jason Gordon in an effort to provide transparency regarding true mortgage rate activity and market guidance to consumers and professionals interested in this activity. All Market Commentary is provided via The Mortgage Coach and/or their RateWatch technology software.

As a Certified Mortgage Planning Specialist (CMPS) Certified Distressed Property Expert (CDPE) Certified Mortgage Coach (CMC), and Certified Military Housing Specialist (CMHS), Jason E Gordon utilizes his advanced training to examine a prospective Client's complete financial picture, while carefully listening to their overall goals. If it is mutually agreed that a new loan makes sense to pursue, Jason strives to make the entire loan process as seamless as possible. He truly believes that providing open communication and patient educational guidance to his Clients and Business Alliances has been a pivotal component to building his business, while enhancing his reputation in the Mortgage Industry as a Trusted Advisor. Visit or or more information.

Click here for daily mortgage interest rate updates and projections for San Diego's best mortgage interest rates

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Jason E. Gordon

Branch Manager | Sr. Mortgage Loan Officer



Gordon Mortgage Group - AmeriFirst Financial Inc.


Office: 619-200-8031



11440 W. Bernardo Court, Ste. 300, San Diego, CA 92127


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Gordon Mortgage Group - AmeriFirst Financial


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AmeriFirst Financial Inc., 1550 E. McKellips Road, Suite 117, Mesa, AZ 85203 (NMLS #145368) Toll free phone (877) 276-1974. Copyright 2012. All rights reserved. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement. Not all customers will qualify. Information, rates, and programs are subject to change without prior notice. All products are subject to credit and property approval. Not all products are available in all states or for all loan amounts. Other restrictions and limitations may apply. AmeriFirst Financial is required to disclose the following licensing information. Please click here for licensing information. 




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