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June 30th 2015
“Perception Working Reality”
When I moved to Montana 43 years ago, one of the things I found fascinating was perception of temperature, you go through a week of -10 to -20 below zero, then it “warms” to 20 above and the perception changes, that it is warm, you see people not wearing coats and behavior changes. This month’s update starts with discussion of a perception.
This year market the velocity has been quick. One of my thumb nails of the market strength, is the percentage of pending sales to active listings, that ratio hit 84% in the beginning of May (the highest it has been was the beginning of July 2003, it hit 88%) as I write on July 9th the ratio has fallen to 66%, an initial reaction might be, oh my god the market has slowed. Yet then we put it perspective, in 2006 the highest sales year for homes sold in Yellowstone County, it was only 45% and last year at this time it sat at 35%. So the market is always a matter of view point, the old saying “is the glass half empty or half full” question. What I try to achieve in this information is an accurate representation of the activity to help my clients have the best available information for decision making regarding real estate.
At the end of June 2015, closed sales up +6%, pending sales up +10 %, inventory down -9%, and interest rates down -4% from the year earlier. For comparison May, closed sales up +13%, pending sales up +4%, inventory down -8%, and interest rates down -8% from the year earlier.
As of the end of the week of July 3rd the rig count in North Dakota is down -95 rigs since last year,