Well, as I mentioned in a previous blog, I believe that our local market experienced a brief surge as impatient buyers had waited long enough, and needed homes so their kids could go to school. That little surge is fading fast, and that leaves us all looking at. . .the Winter season.
Now, our market is traditionally a bit slow in Winter, as everybody is settled and enjoy the wonderful weather. Our seasoned citizen market will undoubtedly experience a minor up-surge, but what will happen the the non-retirement areas?
Well, I believe that the market will reach its bottom this winter. The last year of sliding backwards will finally stop or decelerate enough for normalcy to become possible in next year's summer buying season. I am predicting that next summer will be better than this one, and that we will not have as much inventory as this summer, but it will still probably be a bit high.
Our markets will not return to the record setting years of '04-'05 for a good long while, if ever. I am not predicting a stunning turnaround here. Just a slow, gradual rise back to a normal market. I think that in three years' time, we will have normal conditions: a 6-8 month supply of homes on the market, average DOM will be closer to 60-90, and appreciation will be a moderate 3-5%.
Sounds good to me! How about you?