"Warning - The object in the mirror may be closer than it appears".

Real Estate Agent with Yes Homes Realty, Ltd.

Hello fellow Real Estate Professionals and Consumers:

I found the E-newsletter article forwarded by NAR on Tuesday to confirm what I have been saying to my Clients -- home sale prices may not get lower than right now, in fact, they may begin to swing upward again without a formal announcement, and sooner than late 2009 as originally expected.

The time to buy is now, instead of waiting for deeper discounts that may never be realized.  There are two factors at risk by waiting:  1) Home selling prices could begin to swing upwards, and the home that a Consumer could have gotten for $400K might then be asking $450K; and 2) mortgage interest rates are very low now, and it is the only time in recorded history where BOTH selling prices AND mortgage interest rates are at the lowest points in several decades -- AT THE SAME TIME!

Additionally, an increase in purchase money mortgages was reported this month.  An increase in mortgages issued, would mean a resulting increase in homes sold -- and this would have a contributory effect on the supply/demand aspect of established selling prices as well.

Note the industry forecast below to support the belief that a rise in home selling prices, as the object in the mirror, may be closer than it appears.....


NAR: Existing-home sales to stabilize before upturn in second half of 2008
Little change is expected in existing-home sales over the next few months, before improving notably during the second half of the year, according to the latest forecast by the National Association of REALTORS.

NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun said the market will come into clearer focus this summer.  "Existing-home sales could start to show a sustained increase within a few months, unless there are some additional economic problems or excessive inflationary pressure."

Existing-home sales are likely to rise from an annual pace of 4.9 million in the first quarter to 5.9 million in the fourth quarter. With relatively weak activity in the first part of the year, existing-home sales for all of 2008 are forecast at 5.39 million, increasing 6.6 percent to 5.74 million in 2009.

Yun noted that there will continue to be wide variations in regional housing market conditions. "Some parts of the country that can expect improvement include the Northeastern region and the oil-patch states of Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana and Arkansas," he said.  With lower interest rates and flat home prices in many areas, NAR's housing affordability index is forecast to rise 14 percentage points to 127.0 in 2008.

Comments (2)

Lu Kalaj
Vision Realty Centers - Brighton Township, MI
I like the way you put it....  And it is closer that it appears.  Thanks for blogging.  Lu
Apr 17, 2008 06:47 AM
Bill Gillhespy
16 Sunview Blvd - Fort Myers Beach, FL
Fort Myers Beach Realtor, Fort Myers Beach Agent - Homes & Condos
Monique,  Thanks for a very well thought out and written post.  My friend likes to say " Trying to time the real estate market is like trying to catch a falling knife ! "
Apr 17, 2008 06:57 AM