The DANGER Report

Real Estate Broker/Owner with New Paradigm Partners LLC EB #1326335



Marvin Shelley made a comment on my recent Reality TV rant that left me wondering what rock I had been living under recently. He referenced something called the Danger Report, which piqued my curiosity enough that I googled it, as he suggested. And I'm very glad I did, as it's an important and interesting read, and maybe a compulsory one, for all of us involved in the real estate industry. I hadn't heard anything about this, having missed the posts written by Randy Hillman and Roy Kelley.


The Danger Report is a study commissioned by NAR and conducted by The Swanepoel T3 Group, released in June of this year. It's a comprehensive look at the future of the industry that focuses on the "T" part of the "SWOT" strategic planning process (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats). The report identifies and discusses 50 significant threats facing agents, brokerages, state & local associations, NAR and the MLS system.


There is some serious food for thought here, and it's immensely sobering to read through this and see these all together, in context. It's unlikely that you're going to agree with all of it, but some of it is going to strike home, and even those that don't will provide a useful frame of reference in which to think about the change that is most assuredly coming.


I would urge all of you to download the Danger Report and dedicate an hour or so to reading it. It's not going to be the most fun you've ever had, but this is stuff we all need to be aware of and ready for. Yeah, it's a longish, dry report from NAR - not a great source of confidence these days, but Stefan Swanepoel is always worth paying attention to.


Check it out - it's worth the effort.



Posted by
Mary & Dick

Mary & Dick Greenberg
New Paradigm Partners LLC
2601 S. Lemay Ave. #41
Fort Collins, CO 80525


Data Source: IRES MLS


Re-Blogged 3 times:

Re-Blogged By Re-Blogged At
  1. Eileen Burns 09/25/2015 12:35 AM
  2. Stefan Swanepoel 09/25/2015 02:42 AM
  3. TENNESSEE HOME TEAM 09/27/2015 02:39 PM
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Lottie Kendall
Compass - San Francisco, CA
Helping make your real estate dreams a reality

You and Stefan Swanepoel have me convinced. I'll read this on my business planning retreat coming up in a few days.

Sep 26, 2015 03:21 AM #64
Sussie Sutton
David Tracy Real Estate - Houston, TX
David Tracy Real Estate for Buyers & Sellers

WOW! I have not read the report but will be doing that here in the next week. I will conform or lose in the end. Maybe a revolution will be needed, who knows? I have to read it first. I am to close to total retirement to let it bother me too much. 

Sep 26, 2015 03:22 AM #65
Thomas McCombs
Century 21 HomeStar - Akron, OH

I just got through reading this report. 166 pages of tables of contents, data, charts and discussions by the writers.

I am reminded of the old college story of the professor who did not want to take the time to read through all the papers he had assigned to his students. So  he took the whole lot of them to the top of the stairs and threw them down. Those which made it all the way to the bottom of the staircase got an "A", while the rest were graded on how far down they actually landed.

This report would have gotten an "A".

Most of the issues raised in this report have been discussed regularly in this and other forums, but still need to be kept front and center in our thinking.

Technology is changing the way we all do things, and the sooner we "accept those things we can not change" the better we all will be.

Sep 26, 2015 04:38 AM #66
Christi Farrington
Dagny's Real Estate - Wilton, CT
~ Your representative in Fairfield County, CT

Downloading now .... the more difficult task is finding that 1 hour of undisturbed time, but I will do it. Promise. Thanks for the 'Danger' alert. 

Sep 26, 2015 08:28 AM #67
Lloyd Binen
Certified Realty Services - Saratoga, CA
Silicon Valley Realtor since 1976; 408-373-4411

Hi Dick-I was aware of the DANGER report.  Stefan Swanepoel came out to nearby Cupertino, CA at the end of August and presented his results to brokers and managers.  I agree, it's important for all of us to read and think about.

Sep 26, 2015 10:06 AM #68
Greg Mona
eXp Realty - Chandler, AZ
Professional Real Estate Representation for YOU!

Dick Greenberg I have had this saved as a .PDf on my computer desktop but have yet to open it for more than a couple of minutes.  I will simply have to carve out the time to read it!

Sep 26, 2015 10:56 AM #69
Georgie Hunter R(S) 58089
Hawai'i Life Real Estate Brokers - Haiku, HI
Maui Real Estate sales and lifestyle info

Thanks for bringing this up.  Will go and read it now on a rainy Sunday in paradise.

Sep 27, 2015 11:23 AM #70
Troy Erickson AZ Realtor (602) 295-6807
Good Company Real Estate - Chandler, AZ
Your Chandler, Ahwatukee, and East Valley Realtor

Dick - I had not heard of this before, so I must be living under a rock as well. You have piqued my interest, so I will now look into it.

Sep 27, 2015 03:11 PM #71
Frank Castaldini
Compass - San Francisco, CA
Realtor - Homes for Sale in San Francisco

Number one on the DANGER report list is: Masses of Marginal Agents Destroy Reputation.  NAR gets their revenue from all the agents who join the association.  I imagine that raising the bar to entry would have a significant impact on their revenue.  

Sep 27, 2015 11:06 PM #72
Cat Zwicker, CRS
Desert Sky Real Estate, LLC - Redmond, OR
Down to Earth Service; Out of this World Results!

Congrats on your feature. I've downloaded and skimmed at thiis point and can't wait for time to fully review. What a fascinating compelation of data. I like the elephant in the room approach and that the report shows as much opportunity as negative impacts.  


Sep 28, 2015 12:45 AM #73
Susan Jackson
America's Network Realty Group, Inc - Sandy Springs, GA

Thanks Dick.  Went to the Danger Report, listed to the interviews, alot of food for thought there.  I have downloaded the report and looking forward to reading it.

Sep 28, 2015 02:12 AM #75
Deb Kirschbaum
MB/Priority Properties, Inc. - Denver, CO

Thanks for the post!  I'll be reading it this evening!

Sep 28, 2015 02:38 AM #76
Bill Reddington
Re/max By The Sea - Destin, FL
Destin Florida Real Estate

Think the title sums up the world not only real estate. I will try and read the report.

Sep 28, 2015 03:19 AM #77
Mark Lomas
Santa Barbara Real Estate - Santa Barbara, CA
Experience You Can Count On!

Interesting report. The only constant is change. Too bad we gave our MLS data away to all the faceless corporations like Zillow and such. Advertising platforms that are only focused on their bottom line.  "The future ain't what it used to be," the late great Yogi Berra!

Sep 28, 2015 04:43 AM #78
Jon Zolsky, Daytona Beach, FL
Daytona Condo Realty, 386-405-4408 - Daytona Beach, FL
Buy Daytona condos for heavenly good prices

Ouch, 166 pages ... But it is tempting, and you said so, so I am going to download

Sep 28, 2015 01:22 PM #79
Gene Riemenschneider
Home Point Real Estate - Brentwood, CA
Turning Houses into Homes

I skimmed it and will go over it some more.  Sadly there is little I can do about some of these, many of seem to be issues across the board in our economy.  (Government Regulation, the Economy, Tech Changes)  If we go under due to better business models available to the consumer is that a bad thing for anyone other than us?  Although I do not see an over all better business model (ours might need some tweaking).  What concerns me is the big money brand names using regulation and influence to dominate our market at the expense of us and the consumer.  In other words a market and business model set by the government based on "Pay to Play" and the highest bidder.  As a member of the NAR I am not sure that as a small independent broker my interest are the same as larger brokerages and national companies that are members.  I often feel that the larger operations are favored by the NAR over my business.

Sep 29, 2015 04:05 AM #80
Tammy Adams ~ Realtor / Podcaster
Maricopa Real Estate Co - Maricopa, AZ
A Maricopa Agent who Works, Lives & Loves Maricopa

Thanks for sharing. I'm going to have to go take a look at it. 

Sep 29, 2015 08:55 AM #81
John Wiley
Fort Myers, FL
Lee County, FL, ECO Broker, GRI, SRES,GREEN,PSA

Dick, thank you for putting an emphasis on this important information. The world and how we transact Real Estate is quickly changing. Brokers should make reading this report a priority. Agents, don't wait for the Broker to prod you to read. Take time. 

Oct 01, 2015 01:10 AM #82
Jan Green
Value Added Service, 602-620-2699 - Scottsdale, AZ
HomeSmart Elite Group, REALTOR®, EcoBroker, GREEN

I've read it before but it's always a good idea to re-read as I know I missed some things.   Catching up on commenting!

Oct 14, 2015 05:14 AM #83
Ronda Ching Day
Coldwell Banker Pacific Properties - Honolulu, HI
Call "Help Me Ronda" for your Real Estate Needs!

There is so much meat in that report.


We need to believe we can change.  We can change what we release in our solds to third parties, non members and the public.  We have agent remarks.  I do not know why we cannot have agent information. 

What is changing is the speed of technological changes and that more consumers and agents use technology.  The race is on.  The shift is here.  

It is the strangest business model to me to see

1) unpaid professionals doing work (loading and creating a work product consisting of data and media) and assembling data which is 

2) being used by third parties who recognize the commercial value of the data created by these professional

3) only for the professionals to pay for leads to these third parties who use their data 

4) all the while allowing third parties the ability to capture the professional's clients


Oct 14, 2015 09:10 PM #84
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Dick Greenberg

Northern Colorado Residential Real Estate
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