Been a while since I have posted one of these but between vacation, holidays and end of month it has been tough to find the time.
Anyway market is trying to digest news about slightly better than expected data for companies adding employees to payroll. before you get too excited the jump is not that significant and then its almost false when factored into the equation its mainly seasonal temporary holiday help. Regardless the market likes to see a positive and overreacts quickly as such.
ADP is forecasting better than expected non-farm payrolls for Friday and the market has sold off yesterdays gains accordingly.
Considering its ADP I put NO weight in what they predict, as they are almost always wrong yet the market still gives merit to their forecast??
I think Fridays numbers could be improved for non farm payrolls but don't expect to see a large sell off at this time. It could happen and its wise to lock but I don't think Friday is going to be the big cliff some are predicting for rates.
Currently the FNMA 3.0 is trading at 100.563 (down appx 30bps from yesterdays highs)
Here is today's data...
MBA Mortgage Applications, for the week ended November 27th, fell 0.20% following a 3.20% drop the prior week. Purchases rose 7.70% vs. -0.50% prior (+30.20% YoY), Refinancing fell 6.00% vs. -4.80% prior (+13.10% YoY), and the average interest rate for a Conventional Conforming loan fell 2 bps to 4.120% (4.080% a year ago). According to ADP, companies added more workers in November than originally forecast. ADP posted a 217K increase (consensus 190K) following a 196K (revised) reading last month. The strength in ADP may point to a stronger than expected Nonfarm Payrolls this Friday. Nonfarm Productivity posted in line with consensus with a 2.20% advance following a 1.60% gain prior. ISM New York is expected to contract to 58.00 for November from 65.80 in October. Treasuries are weaker this morning following the hotter than expected ADP data, and the curve has flattened with 2s10s down