Greater Phoenix Real Estate Market Summary - 2015…
and a peek into 2016.
2015 ended on an up note. December, historically a slower month for the valley housing market was anything but. In fact, December was a good month for the Phoenix Metro housing market with several parts of the valley making up for a slow start to the fourth quarter.
Part of the fourth quarter slowdown was due, at least in part, to the implementation of TRID (TILSA-RESPA Integrated Disclosure) earlier this year which created some challenges for home buyers and lenders. However, those initial effects have, for the most part, worn off. Sales numbers bounced back and the bottleneck of pending listings returned to normal.
Overall demand was slightly stronger in December than November and the total supply of homes fell a little more than would be expected from the usual seasonal pattern.
Michael Orr, author of the Cromford Report, and the smartest real estate analyst I know, put it this way. “Compared with November we saw a strengthening of the market in most of the Southeast Valley, especially Tempe and Chandler. The West Valley remained very strong but cooled off a little in the central and northeastern areas and and warmed up a bit in the outer southwest (e.g. Buckeye & Goodyear). Some parts of Pinal County remain relatively weak, such as Casa Grande, Maricopa, Gold Canyon and Coolidge. The Northeast Valley is a mixed bag, with Scottsdale improving for sellers, largely thanks to its southern and central areas, while Paradise Valley, Cave Creek and Fountain Hills all continued to see some deterioration in the market for sellers.”
The results for the Phoenix Luxury Market in 2015 were mixed.
There was some improvement in sales volume between $2 million and $3 million compared to December 2014, but otherwise sales numbers were down for luxury homes priced above $800,000 compared to a year earlier.
2015’s Hottest Price Range? And the winner was….
The price range from $225,000 to $275,000 saw the most impressive annual increase (30%) and $350,000 to $400,000 was also up by a healthy 23%.
My favorite, and the most accurate indicator of where the Phoenix Metro real estate market is on any particular day is The Cromford® Market Index. The index moved from just above the 130 mark at the beginning of December to just above 133 at the beginning of 2016. This is a reversal from November and an encouraging sign for the majority of sellers.
While positive signs in November were largely thanks to areas like El Mirage, Glendale, Tolleson, Surprise and Avondale, where supply was very low and sellers were firmly in control. December brought a number of other areas that have joined in to support a higher reading. Including: Tempe, Anthem and Apache Junction. In addition, Phoenix, Chandler, Gilbert and Mesa are also improving for sellers.
Here are the basic Arizona Regional Multiple Listing Service (ARMLS) numbers for January 1, 2016 relative to January 1, 2015 for all areas & types:
Active Listings (excluding UCB): 20,073 versus 22,604 last year - down 11.2% - and down 6.6% from 21,493 last month
Active Listings (including UCB): 22,883 versus 24,918 last year - down 8.2% - and down 8.1% compared with 24,898 last month
Pending Listings: 4,865 versus 4,410 last year - up 10.3% - but down 20.9% from 6,147 last month (unnaturally high due to TRID)
Under Contract Listings (including Pending & UCB): 7,675 versus 6,724 last year - up 14.1% - but down 19.7% from 9,552 last month (unnaturally high due to TRID)
Monthly Sales: 6,666 versus 6,423 last year - up 3.8% - and up 22.3% from 5,452 last month (unnaturally low due to TRID)
Monthly Average Sales Price per Sq. Ft.: $137.73 versus $128.92 last year - up 4.0% - and up 1.1% from $135.69 last month
Monthly Median Sales Price: $215,000 versus $197,500 last year - up 8.9% - and up 2.9% from $208,900 last month
The median sales price was pulled lower in November by all the cash transactions unaffected by TRID delays. Financed transactions bounced back in December and so did the median sales price.
When you look back to a year ago, the market was not showing any of the positive signs that suddenly appeared in early February 2015. If you look at the market today you can see that almost all of the indicators are substantially more positive than they were a year ago, including:
days of inventory down 20%
annual sales rate up 10%
days on market (sales) down 10%
days on market (actives) down 7%
listing success rate up 6%
contract ratio up 29%
Overall the Phoenix Housing Market enters 2016 in much better shape than we entered 2015.
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