Can January Real Estate Sales Forecast the Year? Cape Cod
Can January Real Estate Sales Forecast the Year on Cape Cod? Let's compare the first days of January 2015 with the first few days of January 2016. And, lets see what happened through out the whole year of 2015. Then, will the first few days of real estate sales in 2016 follow the same trend?.
From January 1, 2015 thru the first Thursday in January 2015, there were 40 single family sales on Cape Cod. Those closed properties were on the market for an average of 285 days - almost 3/4 a year! The average square footage, for those sales was 2125 sq ft. The average sale price of those 40 homes was $598,596 in early January of 2015. That average price was almost 95% of the listing prices. The highest sale price was $3,150,000 and the lowest sale price was $37,500.
From January 1, 2016 thru the first Thursday in January 2016, there were 17 single family sales. Those closed properties were on the market for an average of 190 days - almost half the time it took last year! The average square footage of the living space in those real estate sales was 1934 sq ft. The average price of those 17 homes was $541,423. That average price was 96% of the listing prices. The highest sale price was $1,375,000 and the lowest sale price was $192,000.
If those trends were to hold up, it could be interpreted as bad news. However, I can tell you that the numbers fore-casted to close by the end of January 2016, in our company, are scheduled to be much better than January 2015! Don't let the pre-forecasters scare you into holding off. The real estate activity here on Cape Cod is strong!
When looking at the whole year of 2015, there were 3960 sales of single family homes. The average days on the market in 2015 dropped to between 120 and 130 days. The average price of those almost 4000 homes was $552,000. That average price was 90% of the listing prices.
Data can be helpful. However, numbers from the past don't always reflect the activity in the current market. There is currently a bulge at the head of the python. We really can't see the rest of the 2016 market with this snapshot.
Our own activity indicates that deals are being put together, and early 2016 is looking good for real estate on Cape Cod.