Mortgage Rate Update 1-12-2016: Trends & Projections

By
Mortgage and Lending with AmeriFirst Financial Inc, San Diego, CA NMLS 259027

The JOLTS report showed 5.43M job openings, an increase from last month. No further economic data will be released today.

Compared to Thursday's closing, the market has opened with a 0.125 IMPROVEMENT to the Points/Credits associated with any given interest rate option.

This daily mortgage interest rate report is designed to provide Borrowers & Real Estate Professionals with factual data regarding where rates are at any given time and what trends are propelling current mortgage pricing on any given day. Feel free to browse the library and research historical rate updates dating back over 2 years at www.JasonGordon.info whenever desired.  To make things easier, I have also posted a quick report on How To Read The Charts Below.

Also, make sure to learn THE TOP 10 THINGS TO KNOW ABOUT MORTGAGE RATES (to help understand the relationship between rates & fees/credits) along with THE TRUTH BEHIND MORTGAGE QUOTES (to better understand the relationship between up-front closing costs and mortgage interest rates so you don't get duped by clever advertising campaigns). Remember, we all make better decisions in life when we have the actual facts to analyze...share this report with those whom you care about!

San Diego Mortgage Rates - Jason Gordon - www.JasonGordonMortgage.com

The Mortgage Street Smarts of where mortgage interest rates are going (and why):

The following information is current as of Tuesday 1-12-2016 and will help you understand today's best mortgage rates. If you are a Buyer/Borrower who is still on the fence (or if you are a Real Estate Agent attempting to educate your "on the fence" Buyer), please review these trends and secure an historically low interest rate before it is too late.

The market closed Monday with an IMPROVEMENT to pricing. Monday's IMPROVEMENT netted a change of 6 basis points (bps).

(Note: Upward activity on these charts is GOOD, downward activity is BAD)

Lowest San Diego Mortgage Rates

The following chart summarizes today's market activity:

Lowest San Diego Mortgage Rates

The following chart shows market activity over the past 10 days (hint: green is good, red is bad)

Lowest San Diego Mortgage Rates

The following chart shows market activity over the past 1 month:

Lowest San Diego Mortgage Rates

Daily Interest Rate Snapshot (sample of rates from one of the country's largest Lenders...individual pricing will vary based on specific Borrower qualifications).

NOTE: This Lender has quoted a scenario involving a 740+ credit score, 25% down payment, owner occupied, single family residence, with impound account, with a loan amount up to $417,000 to accompany this pricing.

It bears noting that this chart does not necessarily represent today's best mortgage rates.

Lowest San Diego Mortgage Rates

 

Beware of relying on Interest Rate Quotes like the one above!  

CLICK HERE TO READ ABOUT THE TRUTH BEHIND MORTGAGE QUOTES

  

Market Commentary (Neil Trennery)

 

FNMA in 32s
Cpn 2.5 Chg 0.090 Bid 97.130
Cpn 3.0 Chg 0.000 Bid 100.16+
Cpn 3.5 Chg 0.000 Bid 103.16+
Cpn 4.0 Chg 0.000 Bid 106.006
Treasury in 32s
UST 5 YR Chg -0.016 Bid 100.220 Yield 1.6037
UST 10 YR Chg -0.010 Bid 100.200 Yield 2.1780
UST 30 YR Chg 0.074 Bid 100.260 Yield 2.9580
Bank Rates
Discount 1.00%
Fed Funds 0.50%
Prime 3.50%
Currency
Euro Bid 1.08547
Pound Bid 1.44266
Yen Bid 117.720

 

News:
NFIB Small Business Optimism for Dec: Actual 95.2, Consensus 95.0, Last 94.8.
7:00: JOLTS job Openings for Nov: Consensus 47.5, Last 47.2.
7:00: IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism for Jan: Consensus 47.5, Last 47.2.

 

Advice:
Treasury two-year notes fell for the first time in nine days as the U.S. prepared to auction three-year securities Tuesday, adding to the supply of debt which is among the most sensitive to the outlook for higher interest rates from the Federal Reserve. The two-year yield climbed from the lowest in almost a month. The offering of $24 billion of notes due in January 2019 will be followed Wednesday by $21 billion of 10-year securities and $13 billion in 30-year bonds the next day. Coming after a stronger-than-expected employment report last week, the additional supply threatens to undo a rally thats been driven by investors seeking shelter from financial-market turmoil sparked by China. Haven demand has propelled Treasuries to a 0.7 percent gain this year through Monday, compared with 0.9 percent for the whole of 2015, as sliding commodity prices and Chinas market volatility fueled concern of a global slowdown that will further depress inflation. Derivatives are pricing in fewer than two quarter-point increases in U.S. interest rates over the next year, compared with the four moves in 2016 that Fed officials laid out in their latest forecasts. At these levels that weve reached, its as low as it gets for now in the absence of another escalation regarding China, said Michael Leister, head of rates strategy at Commerzbank AG in Frankfurt. Leister said he sees the Treasury 10-year yield rising toward 3 percent this year, in anticipation of three more rate increases by the Fed during 2016. The yield on two-year Treasury notes rose three basis points, or 0.03 percentage point, to 0.96 percent as of 7:07 a.m. New York time. The 1 percent security due December 2017 fell 2/32, or 63 cents per $1,000 face amount, to 100 2/32. The yield touched 0.92 percent on Monday, the lowest since Dec. 14. Benchmark 10-year note yields increased less than one basis point to 2.18 percent. Three-year note yields climbed three basis points to 1.21 percent after reaching 1.16 percent on Monday, the lowest since Dec. 11. The three-year securities due to be sold Tuesday yielded 1.235 percent in pre-auction trading, which would be the least at the monthly sales since October. Chinas central bank intervened to support the yuan after its daily fixings last week sent the currency lower. Labor Department data released on Jan. 8 showed the U.S. added 292,000 jobs in December. That compared with the median estimate of 200,000 in a Bloomberg survey of economists.
 
My position on MBS:

 

Short term Stays Neutral.
Long term Stays Neutral.

 

Long = I anticipate pricing to improve which leads to lower Rates.
Neutral = Market should stay close to open plus or minimums 25bps.
Short = I anticipate pricing to weaken which leads to higher Rates.

 

Short term = 1 - 2 days out
Long term = 30+ days out

 

 

Market Commentary (Dan Rawitch)

 

Bonds are strong in spite of the DOW being up 100 points, Today the JOLTS Job report was released, It was better than last month, but in my opinion, it does not help or hurt us. We did temporarily lose 22 bps to the bond rollover, so the chart looks wrong this morning. If not for the rollover, we would be knocking on the door of resistance once again. Remember, we are at the top and the odds never favor a breakout, they favor the opposite, so the safe bet is locking at the top. I am NOT saying we dont breakout, But I am saying its the low percentage bet.

 

Trusted Industry Advisor

Jason Gordon Mortgage - www.GordonMortgage.com

The above information was compiled and distributed by San Diego Residential Mortgage Specialist, Jason Gordon in an effort to provide transparency regarding true mortgage rate activity and market guidance to consumers and professionals interested in this activity. All Market Commentary is provided via The Mortgage Coach and/or their RateWatch technology software.

As a Certified Mortgage Planning Specialist (CMPS) Certified Distressed Property Expert (CDPE) Certified Mortgage Coach (CMC), and Certified Military Housing Specialist (CMHS), Jason E Gordon utilizes his advanced training to examine a prospective Client's complete financial picture, while carefully listening to their overall goals. If it is mutually agreed that a new loan makes sense to pursue, Jason strives to make the entire loan process as seamless as possible. He truly believes that providing open communication and patient educational guidance to his Clients and Business Alliances has been a pivotal component to building his business, while enhancing his reputation in the Mortgage Industry as a Trusted Advisor. Visit www.GordonMortgage.com or www.CrossApproval.com or more information.

Click here for daily mortgage interest rate updates and projections for San Diego's best mortgage interest rates

Comments (3)

Pat Champion
John Roberts Realty - Eustis, FL
Call the "CHAMPION" for all your real estate needs

It does seem like the market has been going crazy since the beginning of the year. Thanks for sharing the latest I hope you have a great day.

Jan 12, 2016 03:26 AM
John Pusa
Berkshire Hathaway Home Services Crest - Glendale, CA
Your All Time Realtor With Exceptional Service

Jason E. Gordon Thanks for the latest mortgage rate trends & projections.

Jan 12, 2016 07:36 AM
Robert Vegas Bob Swetz
Las Vegas, NV

Hello Jason ... some great information and your post has been featured to the group:

CALIFORNIA DREAMING

Jan 13, 2016 05:41 AM