The Home Guru’s 2016 Real Estate Forecast

Real Estate Sales Representative with William Raveis Real Estate

As we settle into the year 2016, it’s time for the Home Guru to report on the closing of the fourth quarter of the housing market in 2015 and to take a look into his crystal ball and see how experts say it might behave in the months ahead.

Closing out 2015: Just in are the results of the last three months that show continued heavy residential sales volume in Westchester with strong economic conditions in the region as well as declining affordability in New York City as key motivators of demand.

Listing inventory fell 4.1 percent to 3,814, the lowest fourth quarter total since 2004. The absorption rate, which is the number of months to sell all listing inventory at the current rate of sales was 4.7, 14.5% faster than a year ago and the fastest market pace we’ve seen since 2003.

Days on the market, indicating the number of days from the original listing to contract, fell 11.7% to 98 days, about half the 186 days in the same quarter five years ago. Listing discount, the percentage from the original list price to the sales price, lessened to 3.6% from 4.3% in the year ago quarter. Median sales price for all residential properties was unchanged at $425,000 from the year ago quarter.

Average price per square foot rose 2.6% to $280 from the year ago quarter. Average sales price slipped 3.6% to $548,877 reflecting weaker conditions in the luxury market. Median sales price for single family sales, representing 58.1% of all county sales, was $565,000, down 0.5% from the same period a year ago.

Looking ahead: While no one can make any guarantees about the future, some experts are in general agreement that the following factors will be affecting the real estate market over the next twelve months.

Inventory will remain low: Today, home prices are higher again, following the fallout of the recession, but not quite as high as they were in 2007. The result is that—even though demand has risen a small amount—inventory remains low. It’s a better time to be a seller now, although homes will still have to be priced realistically to generate interest.

Renting vs. buying: The recession, along with the market slowdown that accompanied it, drove up the cost of rent in two ways. First, low inventory meant that many potential home buyers had to settle for renting when they couldn’t find a property to purchase soon enough. Second, the hardships of the recession made renting seem safer than buying for many individuals. This was great news for landlords, who could raise their rents and keep vacancies low in the face of high demand.

However, what goes up must come down, and the demand for rental properties may soon be taking a dip. Should the cost of renting continue to rise, buying a home and building equity may seem like the more affordable option to more and more people.

To read the rest of this column, click here. Bill Primavera is a Realtor® associated with William Raveis Real Estate and Founder of Primavera Public Relations, Inc. ( His real estate site is, and his blog To engage the services of The Home Guru to market your home for sale, call (914) 522-2076.


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Grant Schneider
Performance Development Strategies - Armonk, NY
Your Coach Helping You Create Successful Outcomes

Hi Bill - I see that our DOM here is Westchester is still higher than some other areas.

Jan 21, 2016 07:48 AM #1
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