Mortgage Rate Update 1-26-2016: Trends & Projections

Mortgage and Lending with CMG Mortgage, San Diego, CA NMLS 259027

Quiet morning thus far for Mortgage Backed Security pricing...the Dow is up roughly 240 points.  Report on Consumer Confidence came in higher than expected. Fed Meeting tomorrow.

Compared to Monday's closing, the market has opened with a 0.000 change to the Points/Credits associated with any given interest rate option.

This daily mortgage interest rate report is designed to provide Borrowers & Real Estate Professionals with factual data regarding where rates are at any given time and what trends are propelling current mortgage pricing on any given day. Feel free to browse the library and research historical rate updates dating back over 2 years at whenever desired.  To make things easier, I have also posted a quick report on How To Read The Charts Below.

Also, make sure to learn THE TOP 10 THINGS TO KNOW ABOUT MORTGAGE RATES (to help understand the relationship between rates & fees/credits) along with THE TRUTH BEHIND MORTGAGE QUOTES (to better understand the relationship between up-front closing costs and mortgage interest rates so you don't get duped by clever advertising campaigns). Remember, we all make better decisions in life when we have the actual facts to analyze...share this report with those whom you care about!

San Diego Mortgage Rates - Jason Gordon -

The Mortgage Street Smarts of where mortgage interest rates are going (and why):

The following information is current as of Tuesday 1-26-2016 and will help you understand today's best mortgage rates. If you are a Buyer/Borrower who is still on the fence (or if you are a Real Estate Agent attempting to educate your "on the fence" Buyer), please review these trends and secure an historically low interest rate before it is too late.

The market closed Thursday with an IMPROVMENT to pricing. Thursday's IMPROVEMENT netted a change of 9 basis points (bps).

(Note: Upward activity on these charts is GOOD, downward activity is BAD)

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The following chart summarizes today's market activity:

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The following chart shows market activity over the past 10 days (hint: green is good, red is bad)

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The following chart shows market activity over the past 1 month:

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Daily Interest Rate Snapshot (sample of rates from one of the country's largest Lenders...individual pricing will vary based on specific Borrower qualifications).

NOTE: This Lender has quoted a scenario involving a 740+ credit score, 25% down payment, owner occupied, single family residence, with impound account, with a loan amount up to $417,000 to accompany this pricing.

It bears noting that this chart does not necessarily represent today's best mortgage rates.

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 Beware of relying on Interest Rate Quotes like the one above!  


2016 Economic Forecast (Barry Habib)


Market Commentary (Neil Trennery)

FNMA in 32s
Cpn 2.5 Chg 0.016 Bid 98.10
Cpn 3.0 Chg -0.016 Bid 101.126
Cpn 3.5 Chg 0.000 Bid 104.066
Cpn 4.0 Chg -0.001 Bid 106.163

Treasury in 32s
UST 5 YR Chg -0.012 Bid 101.136 Yield 1.4465
UST 10 YR Chg -0.044 Bid 102.010 Yield 2.0195
UST 30 YR Chg -0.126 Bid 103.290 Yield 2.8048

Bank Rates
Discount 1.00%
Fed Funds 0.50%
Prime 3.50%
Euro Bid 1.08263
Pound Bid 1.42620
Yen Bid 118.551

7:00: Consumer Confidence for Jan: Consensus 96.5, Last 96.5.
10:00: 2Yr Treasury Auction.

Treasuries headed for the best monthly returns in a year on speculation global financial-market turmoil will lead the Federal Reserve to indicate this week that its willing to wait before raising interest rates again. U.S. government bonds handed investors 1.6 percent this month as of Monday, the most since January 2015, based on Bloomberg World Bond Indexes. Tumbling stock and oil prices are sending buyers to government debt as the Fed prepares to start a two-day policy meeting. Treasuries erased gains on Tuesday as oil rebounded. The gain in Treasuries has been led by general weakness in risky assets and a view that the Fed hike may have been a mistake, said Owen Callan, a Dublin-based fixed-income strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald LP. The Federal Open Market Committee wont be hiking rates any more than once or twice this year, as opposed to the three to four that was originally assumed. The market will be looking for some concern at the global market backdrop from U.S. officials this week, he said. The benchmark 10-year note yield was little changed at 2.01 percent as of 6:59 a.m. in New York, based on Bloomberg Bond Trader data. The 2.25 percent security due in November 2025 was at 102 1/8. The yield dropped to as low as 1.96 percent on Tuesday, approaching the level of 1.94 percent reached on Jan. 20 that was the lowest since Oct. 2.

My position on MBS:

Short term Stays Long.
Long term Stays Neutral.

Long = I anticipate pricing to improve which leads to lower Rates.
Neutral = Market should stay close to open plus or minimums 25bps.
Short = I anticipate pricing to weaken which leads to higher Rates.

Short term = 1 - 2 days out
Long term = 30+ days out


Market Commentary (Dan Rawitch)

Bonds are flat and the DOW is up 250 points. Its funny to me that the DOW is rallying about consumer confidence beating expectations. Does the market think that the consumer really understands what is happening? I recall consumer confidence being very high, just before the economic meltdown in 2007. I am not in anyway saying that we have a meltdown coming, but this economy is treading just above recession levels and this time we have international concerns that are much greater. I believe that Germany will begin to show signs of struggle. Speaking of which, did you know that the German 10 year Bund is now at .38%. Can you imagine that? Historically, our US treasuries have run beteen .50-1% higher than the Bund. This would put us at .88-1.38%, which is not too far from where I believe we will trade in the months to come. For now...we are sliding into a trading range and will stay there unless one of this weeks news releases surprises the market enought to move us out of the range. I believe that could happen this the upside.



Trusted Industry Advisor

Jason Gordon Mortgage -

The above information was compiled and distributed by San Diego Residential Mortgage Specialist, Jason Gordon in an effort to provide transparency regarding true mortgage rate activity and market guidance to consumers and professionals interested in this activity. All Market Commentary is provided via The Mortgage Coach and/or their RateWatch technology software.

As a Certified Mortgage Planning Specialist (CMPS) Certified Distressed Property Expert (CDPE) Certified Mortgage Coach (CMC), and Certified Military Housing Specialist (CMHS), Jason E Gordon utilizes his advanced training to examine a prospective Client's complete financial picture, while carefully listening to their overall goals. If it is mutually agreed that a new loan makes sense to pursue, Jason strives to make the entire loan process as seamless as possible. He truly believes that providing open communication and patient educational guidance to his Clients and Business Alliances has been a pivotal component to building his business, while enhancing his reputation in the Mortgage Industry as a Trusted Advisor. Visit or or more information.

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