Market update at glance
JANUARY 31ST 201
“READY SET GO!!, LOOKING AT 2016 ”
January’s market update starts with “THANK ALL OF YOU FOR YOUR SUPPORT AND BUSINESS”.
The end of JANUARY 2016 numbers, closed sales up +17%, pending sales up +1 %, inventory up +12%, and interest rates up +5% from the year earlier. The interest rate trend of year over year declines did end in December and did not continued this month (JANUARY). My prediction, all things being equally, rates should be marginally higher in 2016 than 2015. Yet the wild card is the international markets where several central banks are forcing negative interest rate (banks charge to hold your money) if that becomes wide spread, should force money to flow towards the United states capital markets which in turn most probably will lower rates. Have to watch this one!!
As of the end of the week of February 12th 2016, the rig count in North Dakota is down -84 rigs since last year, 39 working in 2016 and 123 working in 2015. The week February 12th 2015 in Montana 5 rigs were working there are ZERO rigs this year 2016. So far the Million dollar question (again for 2016) “Will the decline in energy, show up as possible decline in business and jobs due to the decrease in energy/oil costs?” So far, with the rapidity of the decline and now the continuation for the rigs working in North Dakota, we are starting to see discernable effects to the Yellowstone county economy. As a little historical perspective in February 2006 there were 26 rigs working in North Dakota, February 2006 there were 25 rigs working in Montana, the peak year in activity was 2012 in February of that year 183 Rigs working, interesting to think about the rapidity of incline and decline in ten years.
First let’s look at closed transactions, Number of closed residential sales in Yellowstone County, 137 through JANUARY 2016, as compared to 117 in JANUARY 2015 showing an increase in closed transactions of +20, which translates into a +17% increase year over year. JANUARY 2014 there were a total of 117 closed sales (exact same as 2015, wow). The longer look back, 2012 there were a total of 80. So into 2016