Mortgage Rate Update 3-4-2016: Trends & Projections

By
Mortgage and Lending with AmeriFirst Financial Inc, San Diego, CA NMLS 259027

Ouch! Friday morning is having an unpleasant start for mortgage pricing given the data on today's Employment Report. Against a consensus forecast of 190K, the economy added 242K jobs. Remember, good news for the economy = bad news for mortgage rates!

Compared to Thursday's closing, the market has opened with a 0.125 worsening to the Points/Credits associated with any given interest rate option (but we are trending in the wrong direction early).

This daily mortgage interest rate report is designed to provide Borrowers & Real Estate Professionals with factual data regarding where rates are at any given time and what trends are propelling current mortgage pricing on any given day. Feel free to browse the library and research historical rate updates dating back over 2 years at www.JasonGordon.info whenever desired.  To make things easier, I have also posted a quick report on How To Read The Charts Below.

Also, make sure to learn THE TOP 10 THINGS TO KNOW ABOUT MORTGAGE RATES (to help understand the relationship between rates & fees/credits) along with THE TRUTH BEHIND MORTGAGE QUOTES (to better understand the relationship between up-front closing costs and mortgage interest rates so you don't get duped by clever advertising campaigns). Remember, we all make better decisions in life when we have the actual facts to analyze...share this report with those whom you care about!

San Diego Mortgage Rates - Jason Gordon - www.JasonGordonMortgage.com

The Mortgage Street Smarts of where mortgage interest rates are going (and why):

The following information is current as of Friday 3-4-2016 and will help you understand today's best mortgage rates. If you are a Buyer/Borrower who is still on the fence (or if you are a Real Estate Agent attempting to educate your "on the fence" Buyer), please review these trends and secure an historically low interest rate before it is too late.

The market closed Thursday with an IMPROVEMENT to pricing. Thursday's IMPROVEMENT netted a change of 6 basis points (bps).

(Note: Upward activity on these charts is GOOD, downward activity is BAD)

Jason Gordon Mortgage - San Diego Mortgage Rates

The following chart summarizes today's market activity:

San Diego Mortgage Rates - Jason Gordon Mortgage

The following chart shows market activity over the past 10 days (hint: green is good, red is bad)

 San Diego Mortgage Rates - Jason Gordon Mortgage

The following chart shows market activity over the past 1 month:

San Diego Mortgage Rates - Jason Gordon Mortgage

Daily Interest Rate Snapshot (sample of rates from one of the country's largest Lenders...individual pricing will vary based on specific Borrower qualifications).

NOTE: This Lender has quoted a scenario involving a 740+ credit score, 25% down payment, owner occupied, single family residence, with impound account, with a loan amount up to $417,000 to accompany this pricing.

It bears noting that this chart does not necessarily represent today's best mortgage rates.

San Diego Mortgage Rates - Jason Gordon Mortgage

 Market Commentary (Neil Trennery)

Market Update
 
FNMA in 32s
Cpn 2.5 Chg 0.033 Bid 99.142
Cpn 3.0 Chg 0.010 Bid 102.076
Cpn 3.5 Chg 0.012 Bid 104.192
Cpn 4.0 Chg 0.003 Bid 106.221
 
Treasury in 32s
UST 5 YR Chg -0.022 Bid 98.27+ Yield 1.3610
UST 10 YR Chg -0.086 Bid 97.262 Yield 1.8653
UST 30 YR Chg -0.194 Bid 96.026 Yield 2.6904
 
Bank Rates
Discount 1.00%
Fed Funds 0.50%
Prime 3.50%
 
Currency
Euro Bid 1.09684
Pound Bid 1.41598
Yen Bid 113.779
 
News:
Nonfarm Payrolls for Feb: Actual 242k, Consensus 190k, Last 151k.
Unemployment Rate for Feb: Actual 4.9%, Consensus 4.9%, Last 4.9%.
Trade Balance for Jan: Consensus -$44.0b, Last -$43.4b.
Average Earnings for Feb: Actual -0.1%, Consensus 0.2%, Last 0.5%.
 
Advice:
Employers added more workers in February than projected but wages unexpectedly declined, dashing hopes that reduced slack in the labor market was starting to benefit all Americans. The 242,000 gain followed a 172,000 rise in January that
was larger than previously estimated, a Labor Department report showed Friday. The jobless rate held at 4.9 percent as people entered the labor force and found work. Average hourly earnings dropped, the first monthly decline in more than a year.
A job market in good health will reinforce job security and encourage Americans to spend, buffering the U.S. from the ill-effects of global economic weakness. While employment is robust, and will play a role in deciding the race for the White House, bigger wage gains are needed help move inflation closer to the Federal Reserves goal. Overall employment growth remains strong despite the global headwinds, Jim OSullivan, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics Ltd in Valhalla, New York, said before the report. Theres not a lot of slack left in the job market. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey called for a 195,000 advance. Estimates of 92 economists ranged from gains of 70,000 to 245,000. January was initially reported as a 151,000 increase. Revisions to prior reports added a total of 30,000 jobs to payrolls in the previous two months The unemployment rate, which is derived from a separate Labor Department survey of households, was projected to hold at an eight-year low of 4.9 percent, according to the survey median.
 
My position on MBS:
Short term Stays Short.
Long term Stays Neutral.
 
Long = I anticipate pricing to improve which leads to lower Rates.
Neutral = Market should stay close to open plus or minimums 25bps.
Short = I anticipate pricing to weaken which leads to higher Rates.
 
Short term = 1 - 2 days out
Long term = 30+ days out

 

Beware of relying on Interest Rate Quotes like the one above!  

CLICK HERE TO READ ABOUT THE TRUTH BEHIND MORTGAGE QUOTES

2016 Economic Forecast (Barry Habib)

  

Market Commentary (Neil Trennery)

 

Market Update
FNMA in 32s
Cpn 2.5 Chg 0.000 Bid 99.231
Cpn 3.0 Chg 0.000 Bid 102.091
Cpn 3.5 Chg 0.001 Bid 104.242
Cpn 4.0 Chg -0.002 Bid 106.24
Treasury in 32s
UST 5 YR Chg -0.024 Bid 100.200 Yield 1.2424
UST 10 YR Chg -0.026 Bid 98.260 Yield 1.7544
UST 30 YR Chg -0.020 Bid 97.22+ Yield 2.6102

 

Bank Rates
Discount 1.00%
Fed Funds 0.50%
Prime 3.50%
Currency
Euro Bid 1.10136
Pound Bid 1.40816
Yen Bid 113.149

 

News:
No news items
My position on MBS:

 

Short term Stays Neutral.
Long term Stays Neutral.

 

Long = I anticipate pricing to improve which leads to lower Rates.
Neutral = Market should stay close to open plus or minimums 25bps.
Short = I anticipate pricing to weaken which leads to higher Rates.

 

Short term = 1 - 2 days out
Long term = 30+ days out

 

Market Commentary (Dan Rawitch)

No News today and we continue to move sideways. I am impressed with how well bonds are holding up this morning, given that the Dow is up over 200 points and oil is rallying. If we move above the close of the last two trading days, we could spark a technical rally and at a minimum test the top of the trading range. However, if the Dow continues to rally, we could start seeing movement out of bonds and into stocks. This is a big news week...so stay alert.

 

Trusted Industry Advisor

Jason Gordon Mortgage - www.GordonMortgage.com

The above information was compiled and distributed by San Diego Residential Mortgage Specialist, Jason Gordon in an effort to provide transparency regarding true mortgage rate activity and market guidance to consumers and professionals interested in this activity. All Market Commentary is provided via The Mortgage Coach and/or their RateWatch technology software.

As a Certified Mortgage Planning Specialist (CMPS) Certified Distressed Property Expert (CDPE) Certified Mortgage Coach (CMC), and Certified Military Housing Specialist (CMHS), Jason E Gordon utilizes his advanced training to examine a prospective Client's complete financial picture, while carefully listening to their overall goals. If it is mutually agreed that a new loan makes sense to pursue, Jason strives to make the entire loan process as seamless as possible. He truly believes that providing open communication and patient educational guidance to his Clients and Business Alliances has been a pivotal component to building his business, while enhancing his reputation in the Mortgage Industry as a Trusted Advisor. Visit www.GordonMortgage.com or www.CrossApproval.com or more information.

Click here for daily mortgage interest rate updates and projections for San Diego's best mortgage interest rates

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For more information on topics like this, please feel free to visit www.GordonMortgage.com (an educational resource for Borrowers, Real Estate Agents, and Financial Professionals). Educational content provided by:

 

Jason E. Gordon

Branch Manager | Sr. Mortgage Loan Officer

CMPS, CDLP, RCS-D, CDPE, CMHS, CMC, NMLS 259027

 

Gordon Mortgage Group - AmeriFirst Financial Inc.

 

Office: 619-200-8031

Email: jgordon@amerifirst.us

www.GordonMortgage.com

 

11440 W. Bernardo Court, Ste. 300, San Diego, CA 92127

 

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Attention Real Estate Agents!

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To see if you qualify (and to obtain a current market interest rate quote), click here for a secure online loan application form.

 

Gordon Mortgage Group - AmeriFirst Financial

 

Licensed by the Department of Corporations under the California Residential Mortgage Lending Act.

AmeriFirst Financial Inc., 1550 E. McKellips Road, Suite 117, Mesa, AZ 85203 (NMLS #145368) Toll free phone (877) 276-1974. Copyright 2012. All rights reserved. This is not an offer to enter into an agreement. Not all customers will qualify. Information, rates, and programs are subject to change without prior notice. All products are subject to credit and property approval. Not all products are available in all states or for all loan amounts. Other restrictions and limitations may apply. AmeriFirst Financial is required to disclose the following licensing information. Please click here for licensing information. 

 

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