Hi all: As an outsider, I've been thinking about if we're due for another real estate meltdown. I would say yes but in a different way.
The last meltdown was due to easy money and too much new inventory. Although lenders have tried to ease their lending criteria, it's still pretty tough to get a loan as compared to 2006, for example. Also, there is really no housing inventory to speak of. It may look like builders are building anew but not to the scope of earlier.
The one thing I am seeing is an overbuilding of mutifamily. Rents are already flattening or slightly on the decline here. Housing prices are expensive here in Seattle. I wouldn't be surprised if these moderate a bit too.
In sum, I could see a bubble on the commercial real estate side and a moderation of pricing on the residential side. This would be a meltdown of a different order. Corrections do happen every 8 years or so.
What say you? I'm interested in your thoughts. And thanks for reading!