Market Update Friday, June 3, 2016

What's going on and why does it matter?

Mortgage bonds broke through and closed above their 30-day moving average yesterday, which is a great sign.  The 30-day moving average is now likely to operate as a technical level of support.  The non-farm payrolls report came out this morning much worse than market expectations.  Only 38,000 jobs were created last month vs. market expectations of 164,000.  Even when you factor out the Verizon strike (35,100 jobs), the report is astonishingly weak.  This is the weakest jobs report in over five years.  This is likely to cause mortgage bond prices to rally today.  A weak jobs report means that the Fed may be more inclined to further delay their rate-hike agenda.  Also, weakness in the economy may trigger a "flight to quality" in the financial markets as investors sell stocks and buy bonds instead.