So . . . it seems that I have a buyers lead list that only grows and grows. So many prospective Miami-lover are intent on buying this year . . . just not yet. Everyone seems to think that the second half of the year will bring better prices, and they could be right. Earlier in my South Florida Real Estate forecast, I mentioned that the 2nd half of the year will bring more stability. I still stand by that for the most part, but for the condo market it is very possible that since so many buyers are still waiting on the sidelines that prices will adjust downward a bit more before stabilizing.
Also, I spoke to a very sophisticated investor that does things like put shorts on mortgage-backed securities and other even more complicated things I have never heard of, and he believes that what happens to Miami condo developments still under construction could be the key to what happens next in the market. He believes that a few commercial banks -- the banks that fund developers -- have certain mechanisms to delay their impending death or hide their life-threatening issues, but that any financial problem they do have from giving loans to failing developments will start showing its ugly head in the second half of this year. And the contagion from the news of failing developments can open a gate that market bulls will not be happy to see.
I am going to keep an eye on this and start running more numbers soon to see where things may be heading . . .