The housing industry will not improve until we change our national leadership. It takes money to buy homes and that equates to jobs and a thriving economy.
The last seven and a half years has been a stagnation, over regulation and costly, especially to small business owners. The debt will be nearly 20 trillion dollars, so, we are in a national crisis.
This isn't a political rant, but simply reality and any professional in the real estate industry should be concerned about the change that could occur this fall.
The rising debt must be reduced, the budget must be balanced, peoples income must rise, employers must get relief from regulations and taxes must be REDUCED. Now, if we get that done, the economy will rise and so will home ownership. Lou Ludwig, #1 is a professional.
Kathleen Daniels, Prob...
San Jose, CA
Bruce Brockmeier
Yorba Linda, CA
Matthew Sturkie, CRS, ...
Apple Valley, CA
Beth Atalay
Clermont, FL
Cody Carmen
Rancho Cucamonga, CA
Diana Dahlberg
Pleasant Prairie, WI
Ron and Alexandra Seigel
Carpinteria, CA
Kimo Jarrett a lot of good points here. It is amazing to see the housing market as healthy as it is in a wobbly economy. I think that there are a lot of regulations that impede developers meeting the supply the market is demanding. You live in California, I'm sure you're aware of how difficult it is to build.
Cody,
What a well developed and written article, and I wish more people have read it. Your last paragraph says it all...more pending legislation, more regulations are more than lifely a temporary fix which in turn will need another temporary fix and ad nauseum. All these fixes will cost the taxpayer more money as more departments will be created. A
Cody Carmen
Rancho Cucamonga, CA
M.C. Dwyer
Felton, CA
Thank you so much Ron and Alexandra Seigel. I could have written more but didn't want to publish another giant report just yet.
I'm not a fan of the expensive fixes either. They don't work. The legislation I mentioned is at least not one of those and actually streamlines some FHA policies, forces housing agencies to audit their assistance programs better, and impacts rural lending as well through the USDA. So hopefully that helps.
If you want to know more about that particular legislation I wrote on it recently here:
http://activerain.com/blogsview/4919199/h-r--3700-s--3083-passes-congress--on-to-the-president
Good morning Cody Carmen -
Thank you for taking the time to research and write this very informative post - congratulations on having it get featured! I work in an expensive area of the country, near the Silicon Valley. I have some first time homebuyers who would were interested in a few condos, but none of the associations are FHA approved. Many of the comparatively priced homes won't pass an FHA appraisal, so we've been in a holding pattern for months. It's pretty hard for many young people to own here!
With your permission, I'd like to reblog this!
Jan Green
Scottsdale, AZ
Cody Carmen
Rancho Cucamonga, CA
M.C. Dwyer hopefully the legislation I mentioned at the end would help with the FHA approval process! You definitely work in a very competitive market that could use some help in that area.
I would be honored if you chose to reblog this post! You have my full permission and gratitude.
Cody Carmen Well you certainly did your homework on this one, and I agree with both Lou Ludwig and Kimo Jarrett -- I could not have said it any better.
Matthew Sturkie, CRS, ...
Apple Valley, CA
Jan Green
Scottsdale, AZ
Cody Carmen
Rancho Cucamonga, CA
Thank you Diana Dahlberg. I definitely put the work in, no point doing a bad job on a complicated topic!
I appreciate your thoughtful comment!
Excellent article! Another factor is all the new construction in multi-family. There is a lot of multi-family rental units under construction in our area. Why buy when you can rent something brand new with better amenities than owning! I saw a complex that had bike rooms, fitness center, and an herb garden!
And yes, the FHA condo guidelines were much needed!
Cody Carmen
Rancho Cucamonga, CA
Thank you Jan! Glad to see new multi-family construction of any type near you. California needs some of that.
Hi Cody, well researched and written post, hats off to you! In my area, there are still affordable homes(under 200k) which are purchased mostly by investors with cash. When you analyze homeownership for US and it's decline, not a pretty picture. Government will do what government does.
Kathleen Daniels, Prob...
San Jose, CA
Cody Carmen
Rancho Cucamonga, CA
Thank you for the compliments to my writing Beth Atalay. And agreed, I don't see this trend reversing in the more competitive markets. Hopefully it's still cyclical or reversible elsewhere. Our tax code so heavily favors homeownership that we will have some problems with wealth creation if we look like more like Europe (oftentimes a society of renters). There are a lot of politicians that complain about inequality without any understanding of the role homeownership can play.
"Hopefully some pending legislation, like H.R. 3700/ S. 3083 that passed through Congress and will likely be signed into law by President Obama, will help. That bill would ease FHA loan eligibility restrictions..."
Isn't this what got us into the current mess to start with?
ie: Community Reinvestment Act of 1995, in which President Bill Clinton "encouraged" banks to make housing "available" to applicants who could not qualify.
Certainly there are many factors which figure in to home ownership, but easing the qualification hurdles is a recipe for disaster - again.
John Dotson I respect your input and am thankful that you stopped to comment, but that really is a false representation of the legislation I have cited. I am well-versed on the CRA and the impacts it had. Nothing about this is similar. There will be no lowering of lending standards. The eased restrictions I am referencing are to the percentage of condominium units in a development that must be owner-occupied to qualify for FHA mortage insurance. This essentially allows more people that meet all other lending standards access a property because the property is eligible for insurance.
The debate over whether the FHA should exist or be involved in housing in this manner is of course entirely different. But the reason that H.R. 3700 was passed with enormous bipartisan support is that it essentially removed a series of hurdles that made programs more costly than necessary and made development more difficult. If you would like a brief summary of the new law I have attached a link below:
http://activerain.com/blogsview/4926208/update--h-r--3700--s--3083-signed-into-law
I have also attached a link to a more thorough article I published before the bill became law:
http://activerain.com/blogsview/4919199/h-r--3700-s--3083-passes-congress--on-to-the-president
national wide it's not really something I concern myself with. I live in a rural market and our ownership rates are still much higher than the national average. I would be concerned if the market in my area had a drastic swing, but factor in places like Atlanta, San Diego, Detroit where renters are the norm...
Kathleen Daniels, Prob...
San Jose, CA
Cody Carmen
Rancho Cucamonga, CA
That is a fair point Tammy Lankford, although national economic trends will still impact you out there. Maybe not today, but the good or bad works its way out eventually!
Planning for the increasing numbers of people globally and housing for everyone is a really complicated issue. Too many people indeed.
Cody Carmen
Rancho Cucamonga, CA
Janis Borgueta the demand is absolutely outpacing the supply. Great points.
It will get lower and I think closer to 60%. It may take awhile but it will rise. What NAR has been doing lately in conjunction with other groups on reducing the minimum for student loan payments will help.
Joe Pryor we will defintely see a bounce when the debt-laden Millenials finally start buying in higher numbers. Then, it is up to the next generation (currently aged 0-17) to see if they can figure it all out!
The link Census Bureau statistics doesn't have the charts going back to 1965. Can you put in that link. I'd be interested to see that long term chart.
Cody Carmen
Rancho Cucamonga, CA
Tim Maitski absolutely, let me see if I can find that for you!
Tim Maitski thank you for catching that. Not sure if they switched a link or I missed something, but either way that's on me to keep an eye on!
I have attached a link with a lot of cool historical data; homeownership, vacancy rates, etc. Click "Table 14" for what you were specifically looking for and you will get a useful Excel sheet. Thanks again and hope this is helpful!
http://www.census.gov/housing/hvs/data/histtabs.html
Well done outling the issues with falling home ownership - perhaps if Hillary gets elected, she'll pay off some of America's homeowners mortgages *laughing* sorry I cou;dn't help myself!
Maybe another bail out will help? *laughing* oh I crack myself up.
What is needed is a path to ownership that hasn't existed in years - we bail out those that bring our economy to near ruin and allow those in charge to retire with millions and never brought up on charges for ruining our economy!
Cody Carmen
Rancho Cucamonga, CA
Jessie Cochran
Panama City, FL
*sigh*it's amazing that with these statistics, Hillary is still being considered the favorite - just what we need, more of the same that brought us to this disgusting mess!
Thanks for the well written article Cody Carmen
Cody Carmen
Rancho Cucamonga, CA
Jessie Cochran politics certainly don't seem to suggest that we will have any great progress made on the issue in the near future. If you look hard enough you will see impingements to development at the federal level all the way down to municipal.
Congratulations on the Feature ... and on writing such an informative and well written post.
My name is Kathleen Daniels and I support Kimo Jarrett message.
Cody Carmen
Rancho Cucamonga, CA
Thank you so much Kathleen Daniels. It is a complicated issue and I simply tried to bring a good deal of information to people's attention. Everyone here thinks about these issues every day and I'm just doing my part!
Hi Cody, Great article. I know in my small market there is a pent up demand for new homes. The few that are being built are coming in above $550K in most cases which puts it out of reach of the buyers with this pent up demand. We seem to be stuck in a bit of rut when it comes to getting homes, in areas people want to live in, below the $500K mark.
Again, thanks for a great article
Cody Carmen
Rancho Cucamonga, CA
Thank you Michael Layton. I 100% understand what you're saying. Southern California is a mess with pent-up demand. I see the phenomenon you're talking about all the time. I think that in the densest populated states we won't see many affordable single family homes until more condos and apartments are built to space the market back out.
Great post, Cody! Lots of valuable information. The Homeownership Rate is an issue. The Solution is even more difficult! There's a combination of other factors that play a role in this. First, the Millenials are being over-burdened with their student debt. Many are repaying them, like it's a House payment. Second, they are just starting out in the workforce, so they tend to be on the lower wage-scale than those with experience. Another factor is the resistance from Lenders. Because of all the lawsuits, many Lenders are pulling back, especially with FHA financing. Chase Bank has already said they won't provide FHA financing. Others, like Quicken Loans and Guild Mortgage, have faced unnecessary attacks from HUD and Department of Justice (DOJ); which may lead them to pull away from FHA loans too. The CFPB is starting to look at some of the Downpayment Assistant Programs (DAP) to verify if they're complying with the Dodd Frank provisions, so they're becoming a bit more scrutinized. Unfortunately, there's no easy solution. If we create more of these loans to grant more access to those whom really cannot afford to repay the loans, then we're back to the aftermath of what led to the Credit Crisis. Then what have we learned? I think you're going to see younger generation rent for a bit, then look to inherit their parents' homes when the time arrives; or when they advance in their payscale to afford a home. California is an extremely difficult place to buy a home, especially in the more populated areas. If you own a home here, then you've really "moved on up" (as George and Weezy would say -I'm dating myself here)! I loved the post. Just a difficult pill to swallow sometimes. Especially when they have large balances and payments for their student loans.
Cody Carmen
Rancho Cucamonga, CA
Thank you for the kind words Mike Bjork. It really is a complicated issue with uncomfortable solutions and realities. Debt is a real problem. Lending standards are there for a reason. You're correct in a focus on the Millenials. Soon the next generation will be crowding the housing market and the Millenials won't have moved out of the way yet. Frankly, it is time to build if we want results.
Cody Carmen I perhaps will have the shortest comment on 'my take'!
Like real estate, this is also cyclic. The moment renting becomes more expensive, homeownership goes up!
Cody Carmen
Rancho Cucamonga, CA
Praful Thakkar that is typically true, but renting is hitting that point where we should see an increase in homeownership. But the rent prices have interfered with saving for a down payment.
For a potential buyer already saddled with a student loan and car payment, many don't want the added burden of being tied to a mortgage payment, property taxes, house insurance & possible assessment. It's easier to rent, also gives one easier mobility to relocate.
Cody Carmen
Rancho Cucamonga, CA
Linda Metallo DiBenardo great points. With the nature of the market today, renting feels safer.
Cody
Your post has very good information on the fall of home ownership to the lowest level in 50.
The elements of the lower home ownership level are not being talked about . . . .
The lowerest levels of people with full time emopyment (40 hours a week)i in the US since the 1960's.
The lack of jobs and the lack of manufacting in the US.
Student debt.
And the list goes on . . . . the home ownership levels will up when the number of full time jobs go up.
Just saying . . . .
Good luck and success.
Lou Ludwig
Scott Thompson
Blue Springs, MO
Matthew Sturkie, CRS, ...
Apple Valley, CA
Cody Carmen
Rancho Cucamonga, CA
Diana Dahlberg
Pleasant Prairie, WI
M.C. Dwyer
Felton, CA
Ron and Alexandra Seigel
Carpinteria, CA
I absolutely could have written a book on the number of contributing factors that you mentioned Lou Ludwig. The state of the economy is indubitably always going to be a very important factor.
The obvious gets as little redundant doesn't it.