Mortgage Market Guide: September Job Creation Declines. Home Prices Rise.

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Mortgage Market Guide: September Job Creation Declines. Home Prices Rise.

  In This Issue  

Last Week in Review: Job creation declined in September while home price growth remained robust.

Forecast for the Week: Retail Sales hopefully ring up!

View: Master the fine art of fundraising requests … and rejections.

  Last Week in Review  

“Good times. Bad times. You know I’ve had my share.” Led Zeppelin. The labor market has certainly had its share of reasons to cheer and groan this year. September’s Jobs Report was no exception.

home prices

There were 156,000 new jobs created in September, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported, below the 176,000 expected. Gains occurred in professional and business services and in health care. July numbers were revised down while August was revised up, leaving job gains for those two months 7,000 less than previously reported. Job growth in 2016 has now averaged 178,000 per month, compared with an average of 229,000 per month in 2015 and 251,000 per month in 2014.

The unemployment rate ticked up to 5.0 percent from 4.9 percent, which is little changed since September 2015. And from September 2015 to September 2016, average hourly earnings rose 2.6 percent.

According to data analytics firm CoreLogic, August home prices, including distressed sales, rose 6.2 percent year-over-year with a 1.1 percent gain from July to August. CoreLogic‘s chief economist, Frank Nothaft, said, “Home prices are now just 6 percent below the nominal peak reached in April 2006. With prices forecasted to increase by 5 percent over the next year, prices will be back to their peak level in 2017.”

As home prices continue to rise, home loan rates still remain in historically low territory, helping opportunities remain for those considering a home purchase or refinance.

If you or someone you know has any questions about home loan rates or products, please don’t hesitate to contact me. I’m happy to help.

  Forecast for the Week  
After a back-to-school shopping season that didn’t make the grade in August, many hope Retail Sales rebounded in September. Markets will be closed on Monday for Columbus Day.
  • The minutes from September’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting will be released Wednesday afternoon.
  • As usual, weekly Initial Jobless Claims will be reported on Thursday.
  • On Friday, Retail Sales, the Producer Price Index and the Consumer Sentiment Index will be released.

Remember: Weak economic news normally causes money to flow out of Stocks and into Bonds, helping Bonds and home loan rates improve. In contrast, strong economic news normally has the opposite result. The chart below shows Mortgage Backed Securities (MBS), which are the type of Bond on which home loan rates are based.

When you see these Bond prices moving higher, it means home loan rates are improving. When Bond prices are moving lower, home loan rates are getting worse.

To go one step further, a red “candle” means that MBS worsened during the day, while a green “candle” means MBS improved during the day. Depending on how dramatic the changes are on any given day, this can cause rate changes throughout the day, as well as on the rate sheets we start with each morning.

As you can see in the chart below, Mortgage Bonds declined in recent weeks. However, home loan rates continue to hover in historic territory.

Chart: Fannie Mae 3.0% Mortgage Bond (Friday Oct 07, 2016)
Japanese Candlestick Chart
  The Mortgage Market Guide View…  

The Etiquette of Fundraising

Follow our advice to give generously, or fund-raise for a cause dear to you, without stretching anyone’s limits.
By Miriam Cross,

Lending your financial support to worthy causes feels good — until you feel sapped by frequent requests. Learn how to decline a request or solicit donations from others without overstepping boundaries, and give money in a way that’s meaningful.

My friend asked me to contribute to a film project he is crowdfunding, but I would rather choose my own causes. How do I turn him down?

Soften your “no” by complimenting his project and thanking him for approaching you, says Jacqueline Whitmore, founder of the Protocol School of Palm Beach. The only explanation you need to offer is “I’m supporting other causes right now.” But before refusing outright, think about other ways you can help out besides financially. For example, could you lend him your home for a fund-raising event, as long as he sets up and provides the refreshments?

Refrain from (outwardly) judging a cause that seems frivolous to you or inappropriate for crowdfunding, such as a blowout vacation or the family cat’s dental surgery.

How can I best ask family and friends for donations to a charity I’m passionate about?

For starters, avoid hitting up people directly more than once a year. Also, be sensitive about whom you ask (give a pass to the cousin who is out of work).

How you ask matters, too. For instance, if you’re looking for, or expecting, only small contributions, perhaps for a charity race in which you’re participating, it is fine to send a blanket e-mail or to post a request on social media. If you’re soliciting larger sums, send a personal e-mail making your case for the charity and conclude with something like “It would be great to include you in the group of supporters. If that doesn’t work for you this time, I understand,” says Mary M. Mitchell, author of several etiquette books. Some close friends might consider an e-mail request too impersonal, in which case you could approach them in person while giving them the same opening to decline.

However you make your request, be sure to thank those who donated with a letter, e-mail or phone call. And once you start asking people for their financial support, be prepared to reciprocate, says Mitchell.

What is the most meaningful way to make a donation in someone’s name?

Donating in someone’s memory is usually as simple as writing a check to the charity named in the obituary. But if you’d like to give money in the name of a living person — say, to celebrate a special anniversary or birthday — identify a cause he or she supports. For instance, find out if your honoree volunteers, say, as a museum docent, or contributes to a particular group. Once you’ve made the donation, send your friend a handwritten card celebrating the occasion and mentioning your gift.

Keep in mind there are some occasions (such as a wedding) that call for an actual gift, unless otherwise specified.

Reprinted with permission. All Contents © 2016 The Kiplinger Washington Editors.
Economic Calendar for the Week of October 10 – October 14



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Harry F. D'Elia
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I very much enjoyed your post today. We are looking forward to more insightful ones.

Oct 10, 2016 10:26 PM #1
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