This morning, September CPI inflation rose 0.3% from August, matching the consensus, and it was 1.5% higher than a year ago. Core CPI, which includes food & energy, rose 0.1%, below the consensus for an increase of 0.2%. Core CPI was 2.2% higher than a year ago, down from 2.3% last month. NAHB Housing met expectations.
Compared to Tuesday's closing, the market has opened with a 0.125 IMPROVEMENT to the Points/Credits associated with any given interest rate option.
This daily mortgage interest rate report is designed to provide Borrowers & Real Estate Professionals with factual data regarding where rates are at any given time and what trends are propelling current mortgage pricing on any given day. Feel free to browse the library and research historical rate updates dating back over 2 years at www.JasonGordon.info whenever desired. To make things easier, I have also posted a quick report on How To Read The Charts Below.
Also, make sure to learn THE TOP 10 THINGS TO KNOW ABOUT MORTGAGE RATES (to help understand the relationship between rates & fees/credits) along with THE TRUTH BEHIND MORTGAGE QUOTES (to better understand the relationship between up-front closing costs and mortgage interest rates so you don't get duped by clever advertising campaigns). Remember, we all make better decisions in life when we have the actual facts to analyze...share this report with those whom you care about!
The following information is current as of Tuesday 10-18-2016 and will help you understand today's best mortgage rates. If you are a Buyer/Borrower who is still on the fence (or if you are a Real Estate Agent attempting to educate your "on the fence" Buyer), please review these trends and secure an historically low interest rate before it is too late.
The market closed Monday with a WORSENING to pricing. Monday's WORSENING netted a change of 3 basis points (bps).
(Note: Upward activity on these charts is GOOD, downward activity is BAD)
The following chart summarizes today's market activity:
The following chart shows market activity over the past 10 days (hint: green is good, red is bad)
The following chart shows market activity over the past 1 month:
The following chart shows market activity over the past 3 months:
Daily Interest Rate Snapshot (sample of rates from one of the country's largest Lenders...individual pricing will vary based on specific Borrower qualifications).
NOTE: This Lender has quoted a scenario involving a 740+ credit score, 25% down payment, owner occupied, single family residence, with impound account, with a loan amount up to $417,000 to accompany this pricing.
It bears noting that this chart does not necessarily represent today's best mortgage rates.
Beware of relying on Interest Rate Quotes like the one above!
CPI for Sep: Actual 0.3%, Consensus 0.3%, Last 0.2%.
Core CPI for Sep: Actual 0.1%, Consensus 0.2%, last 0.3%.
7:00: NAHB Housing for Oct: Consensus 63, Last 65.
The cost of living in the U.S. rose at the fastest pace in five months on shelter and energy prices, a sign inflation is getting closer to the Federal Reserves goal. The consumer-price index increased 0.3 percent in September from the previous month, matching the median forecast of economists, after a 0.2 percent gain in August, a Labor Department report showed Tuesday. The year-on-year rise was 1.5 percent, the most since October 2014. Excluding volatile food and fuel costs, prices were up 0.1 percent. Prices have shown a gradual pickup as housing costs continue to climb and the drop in energy prices abates. Policy makers, who have held off on interest-rate increases since December, might find more reason to build a case for a hike
before years end amid firming inflation and a still-strong labor market. Inflation is starting to turn higher, Stephen Stanley, chief economist at Amherst Pierpont Securities LLC in New York, said before the report. By December, at which point well have two more sets of price data, I think well be making enough progress toward 2 percent that its going to catch their attention a little bit. Projections for the advance in consumer prices including all categories ranged from 0.2 percent to 0.4 percent.
Estimates for core consumer prices in the Bloomberg survey ranged from a 0.1 percent drop to a 0.3 percent advance, with a median of a 0.2 percent rise. At a year-over-year rate, core prices rose 2.2 percent in September after climbing 2.3 percent
the prior month. Energy costs increased 2.9 percent in September after being little changed month earlier, the report showed. Food costs were little changed in September. The advance in the core index was bolstered by prices for housing and airfare, while costs of apparel and automobiles declined. Health-care costs were little changed. Fed officials, who are considering whether to raise the benchmark interest rate before years end after remaining on hold for all of 2016, might find support for a rate hike amid bubbling inflation. While the central bank watches CPI, officials preferred price gauge is the Commerce Departments personal consumption expenditures measure, which hasnt met the Feds 2 percent goal since April 2012.
The CPI is the broadest of three price gauges from the Labor Department because it includes all goods and services. Reports earlier this month showed that the gauge of wholesale prices climbed 0.3 percent in September, the first gain in three
months, while the cost of imported goods rose 0.1 percent last month, indicating inflation pressures from abroad remain muted. About 60 percent of the CPI covers prices consumers pay for services from medical visits to airline fares, movie tickets and
rents. A measure of real average hourly earnings fell 0.1 percent in September from the previous month, the second straight such decline, according to the Labor Department. The figure was up 1 percent from a year earlier.
My position on MBS:
Short term Stays Neutral.
Long term Stays Short.
Long = I anticipate pricing to improve which leads to lower Rates.
Neutral = Market should stay close to open plus or minimums 25bps.
Short = I anticipate pricing to weaken which leads to higher Rates.
Short term = 1 - 2 days out
Long term = 30+ days out
Market Commentary (Dan Rawitch)
CPI came in nice and tame, which is right where we needed it. I am speaking of the core rate which was at .01% and well below the FED target. This is giving bonds a small bounce this morning and has the 10 year back just a tad below the 200 MA and the MBS just a tad above 103.20. These are two important targets which we need to close at, to spark what I believe are two overdue corrections. I anticipate a move in the near future which will take us to 103.60, but I am not sure it will happen today and I am not sure I will call it a rally at this point, it may just be a correction, due to us from the 120 bps we lost since falling from 104.20.
2016 Economic Forecast (Barry Habib)
Trusted Industry Advisor
The above information was compiled and distributed by San Diego Residential Mortgage Specialist, Jason Gordon in an effort to provide transparency regarding true mortgage rate activity and market guidance to consumers and professionals interested in this activity. All Market Commentary is provided via The Mortgage Coach and/or their RateWatch technology software and/or The TBWS Group.