SubPrime - Is it about to turn?? Part 1

I have now read estimates that subprime losses will be between $400 Billion and $1 Trillion.  Everyone right now is focused on the roll rate which shows how many borrowers are falling further and further behind on their mortgages.  When combined with a look at the economic growth numbers and unemployment rate, the forecasters make their bets.  Some say the picture will clear this fall while others think it will take another 18 months.  so what can you look at to decide? Well sub prime mortgages go through a bit of a cycle.  Late payers begin to grow over time and eventually hit their highest point, stay there for a while and then start to drop off.  They may hit a second wave when the interest rate resets kick in but for the most part you can make a prediction once you get to that point.  So what is happening now.....read part two to find out.