Home prices continue to slide

By
Services for Real Estate Pros with Zillow



Zillow released our Q1 Home Value Report today -- a comprehensive look at what's happening to house prices nationwide. And it's grim. Here are some highlights (or lowlights):

- nationwide, home prices declined 8% year-over-year, the 5th quarter in a row of declining prices and the largest decline in the 12 years for which Zillow has data

- 5 of the top 10 declines were in California

- 130 of the 160 cities we studied declined; 29 of the 30 largest cities declined (Dallas was the holdout)

- 45% of homeowners who bought their home in 2007 are already underwater on their loan, and 52% of people who bought in 2006 are underwater.

Here is more data than you can shake a for sale sign at:

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Rainer
26,964
Laura Moore Godek
Laura Moore Godek, PC - McHenry, IL
The information you have given is very useful.  Thanks.
May 06, 2008 12:25 PM #20
Rainmaker
120,917
Richard Sweum
1st Security Bank - Everett, WA

Lets see...fewer people qualify for loans under "sound principles," the GSE's are limiting LTV's in declining markets (gas to the devaluation inferno), people are walking away from homes, yes...I would pretty much say that were not quite at the "bottom" yet.  This is a line from Prudent Bear that illustrates how our economic resiliency is based on delusion:

Weak data - Fed eases, stocks rally.  
Strong data - Strong economy, stocks rally.  
Consensus data - Lower volatility, stocks rally.  
Bank loses US$ 8 billion -Bad news all out of the way, stocks rally.  
Oil price up - Good for energy producers, stocks rally.  
Oil price down - Good for consumers, stocks rally.  
US$ down - Good for exporters, stocks rally.  
US$ up - Lower inflation, stocks rally.  
Inflation up Good for commodities and asset prices, stocks rally.  
Inflation down - Fed eases, stocks rally.  
Climate change Soft commodities up, stocks rally.  
World ends - Good for disaster recovery companies, stocks rally. (from prudent bear)

I keep posting this next graph because it illustrates the reality of the 2nd wave of destruction coming in 2009-2010 that is going to be more devastating than the subprime explosion...sorry to keep beating a dead horse, but we have a long way to go before we are out of this mess when the option arm and ALT-A resets occur on homes with zero or negative equity, "walk away" doesn't come close to describing what is going to happen...it is going to be "give away."

May 06, 2008 12:32 PM #21
Rainer
5,179
Chris Carr
Metro Brokers/GMAC - Blairsville, GA

Great!  Another tool to show my wife why it looks like I am on vacation.  :)

Thanks For the info.

Make it a great day!

 

May 06, 2008 01:00 PM #22
Rainer
122,217
Christy Powers
Keller Williams Coastal Area Partners - Pooler, GA
Pooler, Savannah Real Estate Agent
LOL...that's funny Chris.That's the perfect way to look at it. You are on a vacation! Very interesting information. It looks good here....yay!
May 06, 2008 01:45 PM #23
Rainmaker
655,882
Bob & Carolin Benjamin
Benjamin Realty LLC - Gold Canyon, AZ
East Phoenix Arizona Homes
Really good infromation. Thanks for the facts and taking the time to present them.
May 06, 2008 03:52 PM #24
Rainmaker
325,871
Esko Kiuru
Bethesda, MD

Spencer,

That is pretty descriptive of where we are. Notable is that the serious price declines are only evident in certain areas like Southern Nevada, lots of California and Florida. The message is it's local. Good stuff.

May 06, 2008 04:00 PM #25
Rainer
122,914
Pam Winterbauer
Pam Winterbauer Real Estate - San Ramon, CA
"Providing Blue Ribbon Service"
This is quite interesting information.  Thanks for the post.
May 06, 2008 04:38 PM #26
Ambassador
1,486,777
Jim Crawford
Maximum One Executive REALTORS® - Atlanta, GA
Jim Crawford Atlanta Best Listing Agents & REALTOR
Thanks for posting all the data!  I like one stop shopping for info.
May 06, 2008 04:40 PM #27
Rainmaker
236,392
Debbie Summers
Charles Rutenberg Realty - New Smyrna Beach, FL
Spencer - As always great post of USEFUL information.  Zillow is a tool that all REALTORS need to embrace.
May 07, 2008 12:48 AM #28
Anonymous
Spencer Fan

Terrific reference tool, Spence. Starting to see the dark shades hit metro Chicago, so I guess I'll be staying in my house for a little while longer. Great job, Spence...

May 07, 2008 01:27 AM #29
Rainmaker
1,570,710
David Saks
(retired) - Memphis, TN
Stark info, Spencer. Correction seems to be seven years away.
May 07, 2008 01:35 AM #30
Ambassador
1,271,847
Jason Crouch
Austin Texas Homes, LLC - Austin, TX
Broker - Austin Texas Real Estate (512-796-7653)

This post seems to have the (correct) message that real estate is local, which is in sharp contrast to your recent "napkin" post, wherein you made a sweeping generalization about what to expect for your home based on whether you were in the city or in the suburbs and what price range your house was in:

Circles and Smileys and Frownies: explaining housing prices

Looking at the maps you provided here, I was happy to see that Austin was among the areas that are holding value.  Unfortunately, this post sort of falls in line with the media gloom-and-doom stuff that we have been hearing for awhile now, especially with the headline you chose. 

I hate to say this because it will sound like I want to debate (which I really don't), but this is the type of post that makes my job more difficult.  I have clients who hear about the "national" real estate market, which doesn't even exist, and they make their decisions accordingly.  If they hear that average prices are falling, they hold off rather than purchasing, so I have to go against the media and show them that prices are actually on the way up in the area they are considering. 

May 07, 2008 03:37 AM #31
Rainer
202,907
Richard Lecinski
Long Realty Company - Oro Valley, AZ

I suggest everyone read this article. It puts a different spin on things.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB121003604494869449.html

May 07, 2008 03:57 AM #32
Anonymous
The Statistics are Bullshit
You can't generalize.  All of the statistics I am seeing for "San Francisco" do not reflect the reality of this market.  For desireable properties in desireable locations, the values have gone up since September of last year.  I am pretty sure that Case-Shiller, Zillow, etc.. lump in crappy locations like Antioch, Richmond and other areas that are definitely not SF into their statistics.  Someone needs to do a real detailed analysis.  The inaccuracy of the statistics I am seeing for my area is pretty bad and is causing people to panic.
May 07, 2008 05:42 AM #33
Rainmaker
121,073
Spencer Rascoff
Zillow - Seattle, WA

@ "The Statistics are Bullshit":

Re specific Bay Area stats... Here are the graphics and here are the excel files. As you can see, we go into excruciating detail on each micro-area of the Bay Area. But yes, we do roll it up into an MSA for reporting purposes, and yes that can lead to distortions because it lumps in different areas together.

Here is what the Bay Area maps look like:

 


May 07, 2008 05:50 AM #34
Rainer
24,765
Katie Graham
Cherry Creek Properties, LLC - Denver, CO
Denver Real Estate

I like the graphs and such, but I wouldn't take all of the numbers at face value. I've found zillow to be a good starting point for some general information, but I've also discovered some major discrepancies. But thanks a ton for posting!

May 07, 2008 07:17 AM #35
Anonymous
Erik - Arizona / Denver
This is a great reference.  Can it be included in other emails or blogs?  can I show and link it.  I am intentional about advising and preparing my clients. For long term success.  Thanks again!!
May 08, 2008 08:45 AM #36
Rainer
11,519
Drew Meyers
Geek Estate - Seattle, WA
Drew Meyers

Hey Erik-

It's Drew from Zillow. Yes -- you are certainly welcome, and encouraged, to include this data in your own blogs and e-mails. If you'd like to embed the spreadsheet Spencer included in this post, you can click the down arrow in the upper left and you'll be given the option to grab the embed code.

Further, I wrote up a "how-to" article explaining how to use edit grid to build your own embeddable spreadsheet over at the Geek Estate Blog.

Hope this helps. 

May 08, 2008 09:20 AM #37
Rainer
26,964
Laura Moore Godek
Laura Moore Godek, PC - McHenry, IL

Do the numbers look accurate in your area?  I practice neaar Chicago and the homes that are closing are down more than 8% from their peaks.  At least that it what it looks like in my small corner/

May 09, 2008 07:17 AM #38
Rainmaker
121,073
Spencer Rascoff
Zillow - Seattle, WA

@Laura --

Here are the Chicago charts.

 

 

 

 

May 12, 2008 02:14 PM #39
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