The likelihood of home price declines across the United States over the next two years remains unchanged at only 4 percent, according to the latest Arch MI Risk Index. And in Florida it's even lower – only 3 percent.
The risk of price declines continues to drop, according to the Winter 2017 edition of The Housing and Mortgage Market Review (HaMMR) published by Arch MI. One year ago, it was 6 percent across the U.S.; two years ago, it was 8 percent.
In addition, much of the overall risk comes from a handful of states dependent on energy that took a hit when gas prices declined. Only Wyoming and North Dakota are ranked at an "elevated risk," while Alaska, West Virginia, Oklahoma, Louisiana and New Mexico are considered a "moderate risk."
And while Florida's risk is considered "low" at only 3 percent, 37 of U.S. states are considered "minimal risk" with the chances of a price decline over the next two years 2 percent or less.
No U.S. bubble
"Housing is not in a bubble relative to incomes or monthly payments, either in a historical or international context," says Dr. Ralph G. DeFranco, global chief economist, mortgage services of Arch Capital Services Inc. "Even as homeownership remains out of reach for many people, a growing housing shortage will continue to push up national home prices faster than inflation for the foreseeable future."
DeFranco cites positive fundamentals for affordability, such as below-normal mortgage rates, employment growth of 2 to 2.5 million jobs a year, an extremely tight inventory of homes for sale, accelerating rent increases.
"While there are many negatives ranging from weak wage growth to a near-tripling of student debt over the past 10 years, rapid price growth suggests the supply shortfall is more important," DeFranco adds. "Given these positives for home prices, it isn't surprising that our models give a very low chance that home prices could be lower in two years in the vast majority of cities across the country."
© 2017 Florida Realtors
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