Baton Rouge's Luxury Homes Market appears to be weakening 2017

By
Real Estate Appraiser with Accurate Valuations Group, LLC LA St Certified 851

Baton Rouge's Luxury Market "appears" to be weakening into 2017  
Will higher mortgage rates negatively impact this market?  

And The Settlement At Willow Grove Update showing it also appears to be weakening from 2016 highs. Reporting the numbers I'm seeing and based on a luxury estate private sale home appraisal I completed this past week in the 70806/70808 market.





Trends comparison 7-12 months ago vs Current to 3 months:
Total Active Competing Listings have INCREASED from 13 to 27 or 107% 
Months of Housing Supply INCREASED from 13 to 20.2 months, a 55% increase
Median Comparable Sales Price has DECLINED from $1,397,500 to $1,135,000 or -18.7%
Discount off listing price INCREASED by 10%, meaning homes are selling for 10% less than listing price.

$1,000,000 to $1,500,000 appears to be weakening
Within Baton Rouge's 70806, 70808, 70809 and 70810 in the $1,000,000 to $1,500,000 from ages 6-10 plus, not including Country Club of Louisiana or Settlement, appears to be weakening with 20 month supply, 89% listing to sales price ratio, average 197 days on the market.

My initial thought was rising mortgage rates won't dampen these luxury markets until I realized 72% of $1,000,000 to $1,500,000 were financed "Conventional" and 80% of Settlement home sales were financed Conventional as opposed to the Cash Sales we've become used to seeing since 2009.


INTERACTIVE CHART - MOVE "SOLD DATE" FROM LEFT TO RIGHT TO VIEW CHANGES BY DATE



This chart shows 72 percent of $1,000,000 to $1,500,000 were financed Conventional and not cash sales. 


This chart shows 80 percent of The Settlement At Willow Grove were financed Conventional and not cash sales. 







 

UPDATE ON The Settlement At Willow Grove - Appears to Be Weakening

This is called a Fannie Mae Market Conditions Chart or 1004mc in the appraisal world and included only Settlement At Willow Grove data. 

Trends comparison 7-12 months ago vs Current to 3 months: 
Total sales have DECLINED from 18 to just 5 or declined 72%
Total Active Competing Listings is little changed from 11 to 12 
HOWEVER, Months of Housing Supply INCREASED from 3.67 to 7.2 months, a 96% increase 
Median Comparable Sales Price has DECLINED from $812,500 to $745,000 or -8.3%
Discount off listing price INCREASED by 4%, meaning homes are selling for 4% less than listing price. 




GREATER BATON ROUGE REAL ESTATE DATA NOTE:
Based on information from Greater Baton Rouge Association of REALTORS®\MLS for period 01/01/2016 to 03/12/2017, extracted on 03/12/2017.

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Rainmaker
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Eric Bouler
Gardner Realtors, Licensed in La. - New Orleans, LA
Listening to your Needs

Blame it on the Govenor...He is anti business and loves taxes...

Mar 12, 2017 03:42 PM #1
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Bill Cobb

Greater Baton Rouge's Home Appraiser
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