Every year, starting in June, I start hearing chatter from various real estate agents in Austin, eluding that we may be entering into a recession. It’s happened every year in Austin since 2012, from what I can remember. In November of 2014 I was speaking to another Austin real estate broker about how the real estate market fluctuates from month to month, and season to season, throughout the year. Most people think that the hottest times of the year to sell are the summer months.
My buddy, also a real estate broker in Austin, agreed with me in that the hottest times of the year to sell a home seemed to be the Spring months. Summer is good, don’t get me wrong. But our observation was that the best times of the year was undoubtedly Spring.
We pulled data on the hottest times of the year to sell and formed a blog from the data we pulled from the Austin Board of Realtors website. As you can see from the charts, March, April, and May showed the highest pending properties as well as the highest median home prices. That peaks in June but what’s important to remember here is that the properties that closed in June were contracted in May.
Another observation we made from this data, was how many Austin homes in this median home price actually LOST value during the last part of the year.
Now I am not saying that we aren’t heading into a recession. In fact, I think we will be going to a recession either this fall or next. But we seem to always jump the gun when summer hits and everyone runs out of the Texas heat to go on vacation. It's one of those things that we have to remind ourselves every year.
As for the recession, I will be writing about that later this month. I went to two economic forecasts in the last 30 days and I will be writing a report of the findings on my blog page, which you can subscribe to.