This graphic analyzes the activity for single-family homes in the Scottsdale luxury resale market.
Almost the whole market is humming along with all cylinders firing. However there is little sign that it is going to move up a gear from here… We are at a point where the seller remains in firm control but the seller’s advantage is no longer growing stronger.
Whether that brings any significant relief to buyers I very much doubt, because we are entering the period, from early May to early October, when active listing counts tends to fall back, leaving even less supply for them to choose from. In fact if they fall any faster than average that may completely counteract the slight fall in demand we are currently seeing.” Michael Orr
Given the strength most sellers have experienced and the appreciation rates of the last few years, we are starting to hear rumors that the “Phoenix market is almost back to 2006 pricing” or “we are experiencing another bubble”. Both statements are false. Read that again, both statements are false. Analyzing exactly “how far” the valley has to go to get back to the peak of housing pricing is far more complex than most realize. Different parts of the valley peaked at different times, price points reacted differently and fell by differing percentages, and different types of housing (i.e. single family, townhouse, mobile homes) also had differing falls and rises. But in analyzing these factors, no one has better numbers than Michael Orr.
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