Many of my clients are wondering if the changes in 2018 deductibility of State and Local Taxes (SALT) and property taxes to $10,000 will impact housing market in Northern Virginia especially Loudoun & Fairfax County.
My initial sense is the low end or starter homes housing market will be fine. Since the rental market has been very strong (it was considered cheaper to buy than rent). While renting you cannot deduct any interest. With new rules at least the Mortgage Interest Deduction (MID) will be capped at interest on a mortgage up to $750,000 instead of $1,000,000. Most of the starter homes in Fairfax and Loudoun have taxes assessment under $10000.
For the mid-range price ($750000 to $1.5 Million) homes which is an average range for a single-family home in areas like Oak Hill, Oakton, Vienna, Great Falls, Fairfax in the Fairfax County may see a very slight impact. However, in Loudoun county areas like Aldie, Ashburn and Leesburg may not see a huge impact on the tax law for a young family offers a higher child deductible and other incentives that are offered in 2018 tax bill.
The very high end priced home from say $2+Million both in Loudoun or Fairfax will not see much of an impact. The attitude and affordability of these homes buyers will be offset with other incentives from 2018 tax laws example lower tax bracket for a cooperation or change to AMT). Being in the real estate industry for decades and seen the 2005 bubble burst the high-end home did not get impact largely at that time in the DC Metro area and I don't anticipate the same with the new tax laws.
Overall from what I am hearing and reading as your local real estate source for Northern Virginia I personally think the market will be stable. Fortunately, we were not flooded with investors in past few years who are flipping houses. Condo market may continue to be slower or sluggish compared to the single-family or townhomes market. The strong reasoning is many of our millennial are moving into suburbs rather than be in a small condo with a high condo fee. Unless we have a huge government or external impact in the area or economy we should be looking at a positive 2018 real estate market in the DC Metro area.
Please consult your financial advisor or appropriate professional before making any investment decision.