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FOMC Minutes: What do they mean to the borrower & rates?

By
Mortgage and Lending with Fair Housing Resource Center

FOMC Minutes                                             Each bar = $160,000

                                                                                

The Federal Open Market Committee consists of the seven Governors of the Federal Reserve Board and five Federal Reserve Bank presidents. The FOMC meets eight times a year in order to determine the near-term direction of monetary policy. Changes in monetary policy are now announced immediately after FOMC meetings.

POTENTIAL IMPACT ON INTEREST RATES: HIGH

Compliments of MMG: Mortgage Market Guide

"Traders will have something to react on at 2pm ET, when the Fed releases their Minutes from the April 30 meeting.  At that meeting, the Fed cut rates by .25% bringing the Fed Funds Rate to 2%.  The vote to cut wasn't unanimous as both Richard "Loose Lips" Fisher and "Three Swing" Charlie Plosser preferred no change to rates.  And the policy statement had some verbiage, which led the financial markets at the time, to believe the Fed may be done cutting rates.  So the Minutes may provide some color as to the Fed's most recent rate cut and the possibility of future cuts.  As of this moment, the Fed Funds Futures are pricing no chance of a Fed rate cut at the next meeting on June 25th.  

The Fed has a growing concern on its hands, as energy prices continue to skyrocket.  Oil hit another record high of $130.47 per barrel today.  Unless these prices pull back, it is hard to imagine it not having a negative effect on the consumer, inflation and the economy overall.  

In news across the pond, The Bank of England voted 8-1 to keep the interest rates at 5% this month as the majority of policy makers argued that a reduction risked letting inflation get out of control. " 

So it is the sentiment within the FOMC minutes will likely tell the story for the coming mos.

If the underlying sentiment is that the FED will likely tighten rates to deal with inflation (Oil is now hitting $132 a barrel as I write this) this actually bodes well for Mortgage Bonds and Mortgage Backed Securities. 

Here is why:        

When the FED signals they are now focusing on inflation and by raising short term money, long term inflation worries start to subside, & mortgage bonds will behave in a positive fashion. 

To understand, put yourself in the position of a mortgage bondholder... like the mortgage lender.

If you lend the money, you receive interest over time. If that were a mortgage, it could be a full 30 years worth of repayments and interest. Let's say you were going to be receiving $1,000 per month for the entire 30-year term. At first, that $1,000 may be a very fair return, as you calculate what you can do with that money every month. But over time, inflation requires that you spend more money to purchase the very same goods and services that you can purchase today for less. That same $1,000 just doesn't go as far in future years as it does today. This eats away at the value of a long-term fixed instrument like a bond or a mortgage, and explains why inflation is the main enemy of bonds.

Because bond investors are very aware of this, they will require a higher rate of return or interest on their investment to compensate them, if they feel that inflation will be increasing.

In today's improving economic environment, inflation is expected to be on the rise.

Think about it - a move to tighten or hike rates by the Fed is designed to slow inflation, and we can now see why tempering inflation is very good news for bond holders or mortgage lenders. With inflation reduced, the buying power of their future returns will face less erosion from the effects of inflation. 

So as that bond retains its value or goes up in value mortgage rates in today's terms getter better or lower. 

So believe it or not, this is why a Fed rate hike actually helps reduce mortgage rates.

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