Waiting For Home Price To Fall? Short of a war or stock market crash..

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Real Estate Agent with Allison James Elite CA. BRE 01501699
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2021 E Bard RD, Oxnard, CA 93033 IS Remodeled, Refreshed and Ready for move in!

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https://www.xome.com/homes-for-sale/2021-E-Bard-Road-Oxnard-CA-93033-240289931

http://activerain.com/droplet/5bHK https://youtu.be/etWEBTGEgpE

“Short of a war or stock market crash…” | MyKCM

This month, Arch Mortgage Insurance released their spring Housing and Mortgage Market Review. The report explained that an increase in mortgage rates and/or home prices would impact monthly payments this way:

  • A 5% increase in home prices increases payments by roughly 5%
  • A 1% rise in interest rates increases payments by roughly 13% or 14%

That begs the question…

What if both rates and prices increase as predicted?

The report revealed:

“If interest rates and home prices rise by year-end in the ballpark of what most analysts are forecasting, monthly mortgage payments on a new home purchase could increase another 10–15%. That would make 2018 one of the worst full-year deteriorations in affordability for the past 25 years.”

The percent increase in mortgage payments would negatively impact affordability. But, how would affordability then compare to historic norms?

Per the report:

“For the U.S. overall, even if affordability were to deteriorate as forecasted, affordability would still be reasonable by historic norms. That is because the percentage of pre-tax income needed to buy a typical home in 2019 would still be similar to the historical average during 1987–2004. Thus, nationally at least, even with higher rates and home prices, affordability will just revert to historical norms.”

What about home prices?

A decrease in affordability will cause some concern about home values. Won’t an increase in mortgage payments negatively impact the housing market? The report addressed this question:

“Even recent interest rate increases and higher taxes on some upper-income earners didn’t slow the market, as many had feared…Short of a war or stock market crash, housing markets could continue to surprise on the upside over the next few years.”

To this point, Arch Mortgage Insurance also revealed their Risk Index which estimates the probability of home prices being lower in two years. The index is based on factors such as regional unemployment rates, affordability, net migration, housing starts and the percentage of delinquent mortgages.

Below is a map depicting their projections (the darker the blue, the lower the probability of a price decrease):

“Short of a war or stock market crash…” | MyKCM

Bottom Line

If interest rates and prices continue to rise as projected, the monthly mortgage payment on a home purchased a year from now will be dramatically more expensive than it would be today.

 

 

Homes For Sale In Oxnard, 2021 E Bard RD Oxnard CA 93033 IS Remodeled Refreshed & Ready for move in 

YouTube:  https://youtu.be/etWEBTGEgpE

MLS Link: https://www.flexmls.com/share/1OIHk/2021EBardRDOxnardCA93033

Web Address: http://2021bard.ihousenet.com/

ActiveRain: http://activerain.com/droplet/5bHK

Xome: https://www.xome.com/homes-for-sale/2021-E-Bard-Road-Oxnard-CA-93033-240289931

About Me

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Chris B. Johnson is a REALTOR® who Specializes in Short Sale and REO Transactions. Chris has been Certified as a California Association of Realtors HAFA Specialist, a National Association of Realtors Short Sale and Foreclosure Resource, Chris B Johnson Realtor is a Certified Distressed Property Expert, Certified Short Sale Negotiator, Certified Default Advocate and Certified Pre-Foreclosure Specialist. With a full time staff dedicated to short sale negotiations and transactions, we have been successful with (almost) every short sale to date.  LinkedIn Pro    UpNest    What's Your Home Worth?

 
The information contained, and the opinions expressed, in this article are not intended to be construed as investment advice. Keeping Current Matters, Inc. does not guarantee or warrant the accuracy or completeness of the information or opinions contained herein. Nothing herein should be construed as investment advice. You should always conduct your own research and due diligence and obtain professional advice before making any investment decision. Keeping Current Matters, Inc. will not be liable for any loss or damage caused by your reliance on the information or opinions contained herein.
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Rainmaker
351,956
Chris B Johnson
Allison James Elite - Moorpark, CA
REALTOR®Quality Not Quantity #ChrisBJohnsonRealtor

Priced to Sell, this home will be gone before you know it so call for a showing!

Homes For Sale In Oxnard, 2021 E Bard RD Oxnard CA 93033 IS Remodeled Refreshed & Ready for move in 😊

YouTube:  https://youtu.be/etWEBTGEgpE

MLS Link: https://www.flexmls.com/share/1OIHk/2021EBardRDOxnardCA93033

Web Address: http://2021bard.ihousenet.com/

ActiveRain: http://activerain.com/droplet/5bHK

Xome: https://www.xome.com/homes-for-sale/2021-E-Bard-Road-Oxnard-CA-93033-240289931

Apr 27, 2018 09:56 AM #1
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Debe Maxwell, CRS
www.AtHomesCharlotte.com | The Maxwell House Group | RE/MAX Executive | (704) 491-3310 - Charlotte, NC
Charlotte Homes for Sale - Charlotte Neighborhoods

Higher interest rates & low inventories is the makings of a perfect storm for buyers unfortunately.

Apr 27, 2018 02:48 PM #2
Rainmaker
351,956
Chris B Johnson
Allison James Elite - Moorpark, CA
REALTOR®Quality Not Quantity #ChrisBJohnsonRealtor

Hopefully Debe Maxwell, CRS , but prices seem to continue to rise, at least in my area. Are they rising in your area??

Apr 27, 2018 02:50 PM #3
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Rainmaker
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Chris B Johnson

REALTOR®Quality Not Quantity #ChrisBJohnsonRealtor
Is it Too Late to Short Sell My Home??
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