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Are we Headed for a Bubble?

By Doug Dawes

Real Estate Agent with Keller Williams Evolution - 447 Boston Street, Suite #5, Topsfield, MA 92593-B

September 08, 2018 05:06 AM

Nevada had nowhere to go but up. My brother-in-law & his wife took advantage of the year over year surge in Nevada prices (17%). BUT, what's going on in Idaho with a 13.1% increase? In my town of Georgetown, MA we had 33 closed & recorded transactions in the months of July & August. Of the 33 transactions, 22 sold for over asking prices and in a couple of instances substantially over.

To me, it seems the last few years are reminiscent of the pre-2006 market tumble. The one difference is now we have very low inventory. Nothing goes straight up without it coming straight down. Look at Facebook stock of recent. It went to a high of $218.82 in July now it's sitting at $163.04.

Bubble or not. It is a good time for sellers as buyers push prices higher. Buyers are the key in any upmarket as much as they are the key to a market correcting downward. Here's how the price increases look all across our country.

Some Highlights:

The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) recently released their latest quarterly Home Price Index report.
In the report, home prices are compared both regionally and by state.
Based on the latest numbers, if you plan on relocating to another state, waiting to move may end up costing you more!

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Doug Dawes

Keller Williams Evolution - 447 Boston Street, Suite #5, Topsfield, MA - Topsfield, MA

Your Personal Realtor®

Hi Wayne Martin

I think you are right at this point in time. I'd rather see a steady price appreciation of 2% or 3% instead of jackrabbit increases

Sep 08, 2018 05:46 AM

Doug Dawes

Keller Williams Evolution - 447 Boston Street, Suite #5, Topsfield, MA - Topsfield, MA

Your Personal Realtor®

Now, Sally K. & David L. Hanson

I really like the positive manner you have phrased the potential of a bubble

"Catch-up with no bursting"

Sep 08, 2018 05:47 AM

Dorie Dillard Austin TX

Coldwell Banker Realty ~ 512.750.6899 - Austin, TX

NW Austin ~ Canyon Creek and Spicewood/Balcones

Good morning Doug Dawes,

I see no bubble and really also like Sally K. & David L. Hanson comment ""Catch-up with no bursting". In my area we are bursting at the seams with 151 a day moving here and really do have a shortage of housing which is causing our prices to rise..pure economics of supply/demand at work.

Sep 08, 2018 06:35 AM

Doug Dawes

Topsfield, MA

Carol Williams

Although I'm retired, I love sharing my knowledge and learning from other real estate industry professionals. - Wenatchee, WA

Retired Agent / Broker / Prop. Mgr, Wenatchee, WA

What a grat visual, Doug. And it needs to be broken down even further for the differences in each market within any given state. It's important, as you know, to work with a local expert.

Sep 08, 2018 07:44 AM

Doug Dawes

Topsfield, MA

Sheri Sperry - MCNE®

Coldwell Banker Realty - Sedona, AZ

(928) 274-7355 ~ YOUR Solutions REALTOR®

HI Doug Dawes - good charts to share. As they indicate and you drill down, all real estate is local. Metro markets are different than smaller communities.

Sep 08, 2018 10:05 AM

Doug Dawes

Topsfield, MA

Doug Dawes

Keller Williams Evolution - 447 Boston Street, Suite #5, Topsfield, MA - Topsfield, MA

Your Personal Realtor®

Hi Dorie Dillard CRS GRI ABR

The Austin area is quite a bit bigger than here but the principles are still the same.

Sep 08, 2018 07:12 PM

Doug Dawes

Keller Williams Evolution - 447 Boston Street, Suite #5, Topsfield, MA - Topsfield, MA

Your Personal Realtor®

Hi Carol Williams

I agree that it does need to be broken down even further. I've been looking for an email I saved that actually did they.

Sep 08, 2018 07:13 PM

Doug Dawes

Keller Williams Evolution - 447 Boston Street, Suite #5, Topsfield, MA - Topsfield, MA

Your Personal Realtor®

Hi Sheri Sperry - MCNE®

You are right, all Real Estate is local and these general overall numbers would be even more relevant if the smaller markets had the breakdown.

Sep 08, 2018 07:15 PM

Myrl Jeffcoat

Sacramento, CA

Greater Sacramento Realtor - Retired

Here's what I think is different with this cycle, Doug. In the years leading up to the 2008 meltdown, there were liar loans, and loans with very little documentation. It ultimately created the crash. This time around mortgages are more difficult to obtain, and many more sales are cash. Folks have more skin in the game. I'm more confident that we are on more solid ground.

Sep 22, 2018 02:24 AM

Doug Dawes

Topsfield, MA

Doug Dawes

Keller Williams Evolution - 447 Boston Street, Suite #5, Topsfield, MA - Topsfield, MA

Your Personal Realtor®

Good Morning Myrl Jeffcoat

You do make valid points. Markets do have cycles and I do believe a correction in pricing is coming as a normal course of the business cycle. BUT who knows when that will happen given the robustness of the economy.

Sep 22, 2018 05:18 AM

Lise Howe

Keller Williams Capital Properties - Washington, DC

Assoc. Broker in DC, MD, VA and attorney in DC

We all need to start to change our scripts as we talk to sellers and buyers about the shift coming

Sep 22, 2018 06:33 AM

Doug Dawes

Topsfield, MA

Doug Dawes

Keller Williams Evolution - 447 Boston Street, Suite #5, Topsfield, MA - Topsfield, MA

Your Personal Realtor®

Good Morning Lise Howe

I would agree with you on that.

Sep 22, 2018 06:36 AM

Jeff Dowler, CRS

eXp Realty of California, Inc. - Carlsbad, CA

The Southern California Relocation Dude

Doug

The answer to the question of how is the market doing is different now than it was at the beginning of the year. Our inventory has increased since the beginning of the year, in some areas fairly substantially, but demand is still strong and still favors sellers, We still see multiple offers and homes selling over asking price but the pace seems to have slowed a little. We'll see what September stats show.

Jeff

Sep 22, 2018 08:09 AM

Doug Dawes

Topsfield, MA

Pat Starnes-Front Gate Realty

Front Gate Real Estate - Brandon, MS

601-991-2900 Office; 601-278-4513 Cell

Thanks for sharing this great housing graphic with us, Doug. Prices here in Mississippi are keeping pace with most of the country, and I'm grateful for that.

Sep 23, 2018 02:50 PM

Doug Dawes

Topsfield, MA

Doug Dawes

Keller Williams Evolution - 447 Boston Street, Suite #5, Topsfield, MA - Topsfield, MA

Your Personal Realtor®

Good Morning Jeff Dowler, CRS

Thank you for your answer. I suspect this is the same for many areas of the country

Sep 24, 2018 07:01 AM

Doug Dawes

Keller Williams Evolution - 447 Boston Street, Suite #5, Topsfield, MA - Topsfield, MA

Your Personal Realtor®

Good Morning Pat Starnes-Front Gate Realty

I'm glad to hear that conditions are good in MS, too

Sep 24, 2018 07:02 AM

Hannah Williams

HomeStarr Realty - Philadelphia, PA

Expertise NE Philadelphia & Bucks 215-820-3376

Hello t Doug Dawes The prices here are still not as high as they were back when the market crashed .There are still some condos and townhouses that are still not worth what people paid for them back when . The problem is there are more people buying then there are homes to buy .

Sep 24, 2018 03:04 PM

Doug Dawes

Topsfield, MA

Jan Green - Scottsdale, AZ

Value Added Service, 602-620-2699 - Scottsdale, AZ

HomeSmart Elite Group, REALTOR®, EcoBroker, GREEN

Excellent graphs! In Arizona we are not seeing appreciation rates slow down, but days on market has ticked upward as fall approaches. Our selling season is March through October, which most folks can't comprehend. Why are we selling the most homes in June for the entire year when temperatures are well over 100! I appreciate your post and will definitely share it on G+!

Sep 24, 2018 07:27 PM