This Week
Last week's volatility in the markets stabbed at both the Stock and Bond markets, with Raleigh home loan rates swinging higher and lower throughout the course of the week. Economic news releases took a backseat to the massive movements in Stocks.
What happened? First, remember that the Stock and Bond markets compete for the same investment dollar. This means that when Stocks are worsening and investors are selling off their holdings, some of that money gets moved over into the Bond market, which helps home loan rates improve. And vice versa, when Stocks move higher and investors are buying into the Stock market, some of that money comes back out of Bonds, which causes home loan rates to worsen.
This week
So what's about this week? What will the story be? The increase in volatility, and even the recent decline, is actually perfectly normal. We have had a steady 7 month climb we have seen in Stocks was unusual, and the current 1000-day streak without a 10% decline is the second longest in history. So looking ahead, it would not be a surprise to see Stocks find their way even lower over the near term, before regrouping and making another run at new highs. The fact that outflows from Stocks are being "parked" into Bonds is a long term plus for Stocks, due to the temporary nature of this trade. This also tells us that Bonds and home loan rates will be a short term beneficiary, but will be adversely affected once Stocks start to rebound.
This week holds only one potentially major market-moving economic release, the February Jobs Report. Initial estimates are calling for the creation of 100,000 new non-farm jobs, down from January's report of 111,000 new jobs.
Kevin
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